000 AXNT20 KNHC 010505 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Nov 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Storm Wanda is centered near 35.6N 44.1W at 01/0300 UTC or 835 nm W of the Azores, moving SW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm of the center in the NE and SE quadrants and less coverage in west semicircle. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. A turn back to the east- southeast or east is expected on Monday, followed by a turn to the north or northeast on Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 38W, south of 19N and it is moving W around 10 kt. The wave is embedded in a dry airmass that is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. Only a few shallow showers are noted near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 11N16W to 05N20W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N20W to 09N29W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm south of the monsoon trough E of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure system centered over SE Louisiana dominates the Gulf of Mexico. A dry airmass encompasses the entire region and no significant convection is observed on satellite imagery. A recent scatterometer satellite pass and surface observations indicate that moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds are prevalent across the basin. Seas E of 90W are 3-5 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 1-3 ft are found elsewhere in the Gulf. For the forecast, fairly tranquil marine conditions will prevail through the early part of the week under NE-E flow. Winds will become moderate to locally fresh on Thu and will prevail through Fri night as a large ridge N of the area extends across the gulf CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front stretches from eastern Cuba near 20W78W to 17N81W. Meanwhile, a 1010 mb low pressure is located near 12N71W along the E Pacific monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean and a surface trough extends from the low pressure system to near the southern end of the previously-mentioned stationary front. The interaction of these features result in scattered moderate to isolated strong convection near the stationary front and from the coast of Costa Rica to 16N and between 81W and the coast of Nicaragua. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh northerly winds S of 18N and between 81W and the coast of Nicaragua, generally confined to the area of convection. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Seas of 3-5 ft are found W of 75W and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a stationary front from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras adjacent waters will continue to weaken overnight before dissipating early on Mon. Moderate to fresh NNE winds offshore of Nicaragua to the west of a low pressure near 12N78W will diminish to mainly moderate Mon and then prevail through Tue as a remnant trough lingers in the area. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient ahead of the front will support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N65W and continues southwestward to the SE Bahamas and E Cuba. A few weak showers are noted near the frontal boundary. Seas of 5-8 ft are noted W of 60W. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 37N37W to 24N58W and scattered moderate convection is seen within 300 nm to the E of the trough axis, especially N of 24N. Latest satellite-derived wind data depict fresh to strong southerly winds N of 23N and between 31W and 50W. Seas of 7-11 ft are occurring N of 24N and between 31W and 57W. Another surface trough extends from 22N34W to 16N37W and scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 60 nm of the trough axis. And yet another weak surface trough is present along 60W near the Lesser Antilles, producing only a few shallow showers. In the deep tropics, a 1010 mb low pressure system near 13N31W is producing a large area of disorganized showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly from 06N to 18N and between 25W and 33W. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicate fresh to strong winds occurring in the NE quadrant. Seas of 6-8 ft are found between the low pressure and the Cabo Verde Islands. The disturbance is expected to move to the WNW to NW at 10-15 kt during the next few days. The chance of formation within the next 48 hours is low. See the latest NHC tropical weather outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. A modest pressure gradient between the 1024 mb high pressure system located near 31N23W and lower pressures over NW Africa result in fresh to locally strong NE-N winds from 24N to 29N, including the waters surrounding the Canary Islands, and E of 20W. Moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail in the rest of the basin. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front extending from near Bermuda to western Cuba will become stationary 27N65W to eastern Cuba through late Mon before dissipating Tue into Wed. Moderate to fresh winds N of 27N on both sides of the front along with seas greater than 8 ft will diminish overnight. Gentle to locally moderate NE flow will prevail across the southern Bahamas through Wed. Surface ridging will build across the area on Thu and support moderate E to SE winds over the SE offshore waters ahead of the next front forecast to come off the coast of NE Florida Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will follow this front. $$ DELGADO