670 AXNT20 KNHC 310910 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Oct 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Storm Wanda is centered near 36.5N 43.9W at 31/0900 UTC or 810 nm W of the Azores moving ESE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in a band that wraps around Wanda within 60 nm in the west semicircle, 150 nm in the northeast quadrant, and between 45 nm and 120 nm in the southeast quadrant. Slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days. A turn toward the southeast at a slower forward speed is expected later today. A turn to the northeast or north is forecast to occur on Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W from 18N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 10N20W to 1008 mb low pressure near 11N27W to 1011 mb low pressure near 07N31W to 06N35W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 19W and 23W, from 10N to 13N between 24W and 30W, and within 180 nm in the southeast semicircle of the low near 07N31W. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica and into the SW Caribbean Sea to 1010 mb low pressure near 12.5N78W to near northern Colombia at 12N74W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 74W and 84W, and from 13N to 15N between 70W and 74W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A couple of surface troughs are rotating through the northern Gulf in the wake of the strong cold front that moved through the basin a few days ago. Meanwhile, a ridge axis extends from north to south along 94W/95W with 1016 mb high pressure in the Bay of Campeche near 21N94W. Overnight scatterometer data and buoy data shows moderate winds east of 90W, and light to gentle winds west of 90W, except moderate SE-S offshore of Mexico west of 95W. Remnant NW swell generated by the long departed cold front still supports seas of 5 to 8 ft east of 90W, with 3 to 5 ft west of 90w, except 3 ft or less in the Texas coastal waters. For the forecast, remnant NW swell over the central and eastern Gulf will decay today. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions will prevail through the early part of the week under NE-E flow. Winds will become moderate to locally fresh and veer to E-SE mid-week. The next cold front may move into and through the Gulf by the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from central Cuba to west of Jamaica to the northeast coast of Nicaragua. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the front. Winds west of the front have diminished to gentle to moderate, however fresh N-NE winds are offshore of the eastern coast of Honduras and offshore of Nicaragua where winds are funneling down along the coast. Remnant NW swell to around 8 ft is still pushing through the Yucatan Channel, with mainly 4 to 7 ft seas elsewhere west of the front. Ahead of the front low pressure is in the SW Caribbean near 12.5N78W with associated convection described above. A surface trough extends north-northeast of the low to 18N75W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail east of the front, along with 3 to 5 ft seas, locally 6 ft near NE Caribbean passages in northerly swell, and except 3 ft or less in the SW Caribbean south of 11N. For the forecast, the stationary front will transition back to a cold front early today and extend from far eastern Cuba to the offshore waters of SE Nicaragua by later today where the front will stall again. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore of Nicaragua will diminish by early Mon. Remnant NW swell behind the front in the NW Caribbean will decay today. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient ahead of the front will support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin through the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slow moving cold front is west of Bermuda from 31N70W to 27N72W to across the southeast Bahamas to central/eastern Cuba. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is about 120 nm along and east of the front. A trailing and reinforcing trough is about 120 nm west of the front. Fresh to strong S-SW winds are within 90 nm east of the front and north of 27N, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere east of the front. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds are behind the front. Seas of 7-11 ft in northernly swell are north of 27N between 65W and 78W. A weakening cold front is to the east extending from 31N41W to 26N52W with broken scattered showers and thunderstorms within 150 nm southeast of the front. Fresh to strong SW winds are noted within 150 nm ahead of the front and north of 26N/27N. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds follow the front to 55W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are north of 26N between 33W and 62W. A pair of 1016 mb high pressure centers are between the two cold fronts, one near 31N61W and the other near 22N58W. Light and variable winds are along the associated ridge between 58W and 63W. A 1022 mb high is centered west of the Canary Islands near 29N22W with a ridge extending southwest-west to near 21N50W. A 1008 mb low pressure area is located over the tropical eastern Atlantic a few hundred nautical miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Associated convection is described above. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted on the northern side of the low. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere from 10N to 22N between the coast of Africa and 35W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the open Atlantic, along with 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell. Slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days before it moves into a region of strong upper-level winds early in the week. This system is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt during the next few days. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone development during the next couple of days. For more information please read the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will extend from Bermuda to eastern Cuba later today where it will stall again. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected on both sides of the front through this morning, mainly north of 27N. Seas of 8 ft or greater north of 27N and east of 77W will decay today. The front will weaken as it stretches from 30N65W to the Turks and Caicos Islands Mon morning with gentle to locally moderate NE flow then prevailing across the southern Bahamas and the Great Bahama Bank into mid-week. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. There is a medium to high ash concentration in the vicinity of the volcano, mainly to the northwest of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. $$ Lewitsky