000 AXNT20 KNHC 291754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Oct 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong to gale force W to NW winds will continue over the northern Gulf of Mexico through today, especially from 27N to 29N, between 85W and 92W. Winds will diminish below gale force this evening, then gradually diminish to less than 15 kt by late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. Wave heights of 15 to 22 ft are expected to continue over portions of the Gulf in W to NW swell, subsiding to 10 to 17 ft after midnight tonight. The large NW swell will spread southeast, gradually decaying through the weekend. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 30W from 04N to 18N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the next section. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N23W to 1012 mb low pressure near 07N32W to 06N38W. The ITCZ continues from 06N38W to 07N54W. A large area of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 15N between 07W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on the forecast for the gale force winds and dangerous seas across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The cold front exited the Gulf of Mexico and extends from Grand Bahama Island to the Isle of Youth to southern Belize as of 1500 UTC. Gale force winds are still occurring in the northern Gulf. The latest ASCAT pass from the late morning hours on Friday shows near gale to gale force winds of 30 to 35 kt covering the area from 26N to 30N between 84.5W and 94W. An oil platform KGBK near 27.2N 92.2W measured winds of 34 kt gusting to 42 kt at a height of 58 meters at 1515 UTC. NOAA buoy 42039 at 28.8N 86.0W measured wave heights of 15 ft at 1550 UTC today. Winds over 25 kt and seas over 13 ft are mainly confined to areas north of 24N. The quietest conditions in the basin are currently found in the south- central Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf of Mexico, where moderate N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast, conditions will improve Sun as ridging dominates from near the Texas-Louisiana border to the Bay of Campeche with light to gentle winds across the basin. Seas of 3 ft or less are expected for the start of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from western Cuba near 23N82W to southern Belize near 16N89W. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are noted within 30 nm behind and within 150 nm ahead of the front. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong N winds to the west of the cold front, especially over the western Gulf of Honduras and areas along the coast, south of Cozumel. Seas are quickly building in the Yucatan Channel behind the cold front. Seas in the Yucatan Channel are forecast to peak tonight in the 10 to 14 ft range in NW swell, before gradually subsiding to below 8 ft by Sunday afternoon. Elsewhere, scattered moderate thunderstorms are seen from 20N- 21N between 78W-79W, and also along the coast of Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. The east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection offshore eastern Panama and NW Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is also seen in the south-central Caribbean, south of 14N and west of 67W. Moderate trades cover most of the basin east of 82W, except for fresh in the south-central Caribbean, south of 16N between 67W-74W, while gentle winds prevail in the far SW basin. Most of the eastern and central Caribbean is currently experiencing seas of 3 to 6 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will continue advancing through the NW Caribbean this weekend, before stalling Sun night from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of up to 12 ft are expected in the wake of the cold front, especially in and near the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, a weak ridge over the northern Caribbean Sea ahead of the front will support mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin, with locally fresh winds likely off the coast of Venezuela. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N76W to Grand Bahama Island near 27N78W to the coast of Cuba near 23N82W to southern Belize near 16N89W. A line of strong thunderstorms is ahead of the front, and extends from 31N72W to 24.5N79W as of 1700 UTC. The latest ASCAT pass from Friday morning shows fresh to strong winds on both sides of the front, covering the area north of 24N and west of 71W. Wave heights of 7 to 10 ft cover the area to the north of the Bahamas. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will move slowly east and reach a Bermuda to eastern Cuba line over the weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected on both sides of the front into Sat night, mainly north of 26N. Seas of 8 ft or greater will fill across the northern waters today, lingering through Sun before decaying. The front will weaken as it stretches from 30N65W to the Turks and Caicos Islands early Mon with gentle to moderate NE flow then prevailing through Tue night. In the eastern and central Atlantic, a surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure near 29N21W to a 1018 mb high pressure near 24N50W to Hispaniola. Light to gentle winds are within a couple hundred nm of the surface ridge axis. A cold front extends from 31N54W to 29N58W. Isolated moderate thunderstorms are well southeast of the front. Fresh to strong SW winds are occurring east of the front, mainly north of 28.5N. Seas of 8 to 12 ft, mainly in NW to N swell, are occurring north of 26N and west of 44W. The swell is emanating from a gale force 983 mb low, well north of the area near 41N55W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere. Across the tropical latitudes, gentle to moderate trades prevail, except for fresh to strong NE winds east of 35W from 12N to 20N. For the forecast east of 65W, the cold front from 31N54W to 29N58W will reach from 31N40W to 27N47W early Sun, before slowing down and becoming nearly stationary through early next week. Fresh to strong SW winds will continue ahead of the front through early next week, with seas of 8 to 11 ft in the region. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. A volcanic ash cloud is slowly drifting southwest. High volcanic ash concentration remains in the vicinity of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. $$ Hagen