000 AXNT20 KNHC 280609 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Oct 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong to gale winds are expected to develop across the N Gulf behind a strong cold front, N of 27N between the Texas coast and the Florida Big Bend area. Winds across the NW Gulf will reach strong to gale force by Thu afternoon, then spread eastward to the N central Gulf Thu evening before reaching the NE Gulf late Thur night. Afterward, winds should gradually subside below gale force from the NW Gulf to the NE Gulf on Fri. Seas across the N Gulf will build to 11 to 15 ft by Thu night, then spread the central Gulf Fri morning before reaching E central Gulf Fri afternoon. Seas should gradually subside starting Sat evening. Please, see the latest NWS Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W from 20N southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 12N between 30W and 35W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits the Senegal coast near 14N17W to 06N39W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N39W to 09N55W N of Suriname. Scattered moderate convection is seen S of the monsoon trough from 03N to 09N between 11W and 32W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident near the monsoon trough from 11N to 15N between 20W and 30W. No significant convection is found near the ITCZ based on the latest analysis. The eastern end of E Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms Panama and N Colombia, and nearby waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on a Gale Warning across the N Gulf. A strong cold front curves southwestward from near Lake Charles, Louisiana across the NW Gulf to near Tampico, N Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and up to 70 nm SE of the front. A squall line is ahead of this front, extending west-southwestward from NE Gulf at 28N87W to the central Gulf at 24N93W. Scattered to numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms along with strong to near-gale winds and seas at 9 to 12 ft are present near this feature N of 26N between 84W and 90W. Mariners should refer to Coastal Waters Forecast issued by local Weather Forecast Offices along the Gulf, and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center for more detail information. Outside the influence of the squall line, fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are seen across the NW and N central Gulf. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are evident over the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the strong cold front will move quickly across the Gulf, accompanied by a band of showers and thunderstorms, some strong, through Thu night. Fresh to strong S winds will continue ahead of the front, with strong to gale force W to NW winds and building seas developing over the N Gulf in the wake of the front Thu morning through Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SW basin from 11N to 13N between 77W and 80W. Convergent trade winds are coupling with an mid-level trough to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SE basin, including the Windward Islands. Moderate to fresh trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are found over the S central basin, N of Colombia and Venezuela. Mainly gentle trades and SE trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft are evident for the NW basin, including the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, a weak ridge over the N Caribbean Sea will support mainly fresh trades across the S central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela through early Thu. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds will prevail over the NW Caribbean through Thu night ahead of a cold front forecast to reach W Cuba and the NW Caribbean. The front will extend from W Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by midday Fri, and from central Cuba to NE Honduras on Sat, then stall on Sun from E Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua while dissipating. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from NE of Bermuda across 31N62W to N of the central Bahamas at 27N72W, then continues westward as a stationary front to across the NW Bahamas to S Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring near and up to 160 nm SE of the cold front. Enhanced by a mid-level trough in the vicinity, convergent trade winds are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms just E of the Lesser Antilles from 10N to 19N between 54W and 61W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong SW to WNW winds with seas of 8 to 12 ft associated with the cold front are seen N of 28N between 54W and 74W. Otherwise, light to gentle with locally moderate winds and seas at 4 to 8 ft are present N of 20N between the African coast and George-Florida coast. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. High volcanic ash concentration remains in the vicinity of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will begin to stall Thu morning, then gradually dissipate through Thu afternoon. N of 25N and E of 75W, fresh to strong W winds follow this boundary, along with seas of 8 to 10 ft. The next cold front from the Gulf of Mexico will sweep eastward across the region Thu night through Fri night, then stall from 31N68W to E Cuba over the weekend. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of this front. $$ Chan