000 AXNT20 KNHC 260835 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Oct 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0820 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident well east of the wave axis from 11N to 13N between 20W and 22W. A Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 81W from 18N southward and moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 77W and 79W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 11N23W. The ITCZ extends from 07N27W to 06N49W. In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Wave section, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 32W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Divergence aloft associated with an upper anticyclone is supporting a persistent cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula currently. A cold front is moving into the north central Gulf, and currently reaches from near Fort Walton Beach, Florida to southeast Louisiana. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are evident over the northeast Gulf with 3 to 4 ft seas. A weak pressure pattern is in place across the remainder of the Gulf, supporting light breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop across the NW Gulf tonight into Wed ahead of a cold front expected to push off the Texas coast on Wed. The front will move across the Gulf region through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front, with building seas of 12-13 ft in the wake of the front. Frequent gusts to gale force are also expected over the north-central and NE Gulf Wed night through Fri before quickly diminishing early Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A sharp upper trough extends from the central Atlantic near 30N49W through the Leeward Islands to the coast of Colombia. A few showers are noted in regional radar on the southeast side of this upper trough, moving quickly westward in the trade wind flow and mostly staying over the Atlantic, but impacting the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Fresh to strong trade winds are active over the south-central Caribbean, supporting a few showers and 5 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds persist over eastern Caribbean with 4 to 5 ft seas. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated that the fresh E winds observed earlier over the Bay Islands and the Gulf of Honduras have diminished slightly. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in that area. Moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except for light SE winds and slight seas over the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, weak ridge across the western Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong trades across the eastern Caribbean and tropical Atlantic waters E of the Windward Islands through tonight. Winds are also expected to pulse fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Thu night and reach from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by midday Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deepening, non-tropical low pressure system is located N of area about 215 nm ENE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The associated cold front is moving eastward across the waters north of 28N off northeast Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active north of 28N and within 360 nm east of the front. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass from 02 UTC confirmed strong to near-gale force SW winds within this area. A concurrent radar altimeter satellite pass showed seas were reaching 8 to 10 ft. Farther east, a weak ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure near the Azores Islands westward to 25N65W, disrupted somewhat by a trough near 50W north of 20N, and a cold front north of the area over the north central Atlantic. This pattern is supporting moderate trade winds south of 15N, and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over the tropical Atlantic with a component of N swell, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 5 to 7 ft east of 35W. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash cloud slowly drifting SW. Higher concentration over volcano and western vicinity. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, the low pressure off the Carolinas will move northeast through today and rapidly intensify. An associated cold front moving eastward across the northern forecast waters will produce fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas expected ahead of it. Another cold front will move off NE Florida coast today, and bring more fresh to strong winds across the waters N of 27N. Both fronts are forecast to merge by tonight. The next cold front is expected to sweep across the region Thu night through Fri night producing another round of fresh to strong winds north of the Bahamas. $$ Christensen