000 AXNT20 KNHC 260410 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Oct 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident south of the Cabo Verde Islands from 10N to 15N between 23W and 26W. Regional sounding and satellite-derived wind data no longer show definitive evidence of a tropical wave previously analyzed over the eastern Caribbean. Weak evidence of a mid level trough is evident east of the Leeward Islands, but this is likely associated with a sharp upper trough over the region. Regional radar shows a few showers associated showers east of the Leewards. Dry northerly air aloft is suppressing any showers elsewhere over the eastern Caribbean. A Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 79W from 18N southward and moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07N25W to 06N42W to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Wave section, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Divergence aloft associated with an upper anticyclone is supporting a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula currently. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are active over the Straits of Florida related to the tail end of an upper trough moving off the east coast into the Atlantic, along with a thunderstorm off northwest Cuba, but most of the earlier activity in this area has dissipated. A trough over the western Florida Panhandle is supporting moderate NW winds and 3 to 4 ft seas over the Florida Big Bend offshore waters. A weak pressure pattern is in place across the remainder of the Gulf, supporting light breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas. Fore the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop across the NW Gulf Tue night into Wed ahead of a cold front expected to push off the Texas coast on Wed. The front will move across the Gulf region through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front, with building seas to 12-13 ft in the wake of the front. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected over the north-central and NE Gulf Wed night through Fri before quickly diminishing early Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A sharp upper trough extends from the central Atlantic near 30N52W through Puerto Rico to the north central Caribbean. A few showers are noted in regional radar on the southeast side of this upper trough, moving quickly westward in the trade wind flow and mostly staying over the Atlantic, but impacting the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Fresh to strong trade winds are active over northwest Venezuela, the ABC Islands, and off northeast Colombia, supporting a few showers over the south central Caribbean and 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh E winds are noted over the Bay Islands and the Gulf of Honduras, with 4 to 5 ft seas, and in the southeast Caribbean south of 15N. Moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except for light SE winds and slight seas over the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, weak ridge across the western Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong trades across the eastern Caribbean and tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands through tonight. Winds are also expected to pulse fresh to strong in the south- central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Thu evening and reach from W central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by midday Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low pressure continues to deepen north of the area off the Carolinas, with an attendant cold front moving eastward over the waters north of 28N off northeast Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active ahead of the front and northeast of the northern Bahamas, near 28N77W. Another cluster of showers and thunderstorms is active near 27N74W. A scatterometer satellite pass from 02 UTC confirmed strong to near gale force SW winds within 300 nm east of the front, north of 28N. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in this area. Farther east, a weak ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure near the Azores Islands westward to almost the central Bahamas, disrupted somewhat by a trough near 50W north of 20N, and a cold front north of the area over the north central Atlantic. This pattern is supporting moderate trade winds south of 15N, and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over the tropical Atlantic with a component of N swell, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 5 to 7 ft east of 35W. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash cloud slowly drifting SW. Higher concentration over volcano and western vicinity. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, the low pressure off the Carolinas will move northeast through today and rapidly intensify. An associated cold front moving eastward across the northern forecast waters will produce fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas expected ahead of it. A cold front will move off NE Florida coast early today, and bring more fresh to strong winds across the waters north of 27N. The next cold front is expected to sweep across the region Thu night through Fri night bringing another round of fresh to strong winds north of the Bahamas. $$ Christensen