000 AXNT20 KNHC 250538 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Oct 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is E of the Cabo Verde Islands near 22W from 16N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are present in the vicinity of the wave axis. Another Atlantic tropical wave is moving across the Windward Islands near 60W from 16N southward into Venezuela, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Aided by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, scattered moderate to convection is occurring from the coast of Guayana and NE Venezuela to 13N between 56W and 63W. A Caribbean tropical wave east of Jamaica is along 75W from the Windward Passage into Colombia, moving W at around 15 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has moved well inland into Colombia. Another tropical wave, which mainly extends into the eastern Pacific stretches northward into the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula. Its axis is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. All associated convection is now in the eastern Pacific. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits through the African coast at Guinea-Bissau near 10N15W to 07N24W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N24W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is evident near the monsoon Trough near along the African coast extending from Senegal to Sierra Leone and along the ITCZ between 29W and 44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection associated with this trough extends N of 23N and E of 90W. E of 88W, scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends across the Florida Peninsula. This is mainly associated to significant upper-level moisture and synoptic scale lift which is leading to this disorganized convection. Except near the thunderstorm activity, mainly gentle SE wind prevails across the basin with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters producing light to gentle winds Mon and Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop in the NW Gulf Tue night into Wed ahead of a cold front expected to push off the Texas coast on Wed. The front will move across the Gulf region through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front, with building seas to 10-12 ft in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on convection across the Caribbean Basin. While drier air is suppressing convection development across much of the basin, patches of moisture is enhancing some shallow showers across the central and western Caribbean this evening. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades with seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the central Caribbean while seas in the eastern Caribbean have subsided to 3 to 4 ft. Mainly moderate trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh to locally strong trades E of the Windward Islands and across the eastern Caribbean through Mon night. Winds are also expected to pulse fresh to strong in the Venezuela basin through Mon night. Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected to prevail across the basin from Tue through Thu. A cold front is expected to reach the NW Caribbean Thu night into Fri morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from SW of Bermuda through NW Bahamas into the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is noted in association with this trough N of 24N between 64W and along the eastern coast of Florida. Further east, another trough extends from 27N41W to 20N44W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough axis. Most of the eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a 1031 mb high pressure north of the area. Mainly moderate winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft dominate N of 16N between 56W and the African coast. S of 16N to the ITCZ, moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail. W of 70W, moderate SE winds are increasing, and seas are 3 to 5 ft. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash clouds and some SO2 have been emitted periodically from the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast W of 65W, A non-tropical low-pressure system is expected to form off the east coast of the United States during the next couple of days. The frontal low will move generally north-northeastward through the middle of the week, and the system could bring rain and wind impacts to portions of the mid- Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. The associated cold front will move eastward across the northern forecast waters Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas are expected ahead of the front. Another cold front will push off NE Florida coast on Tue, and bring more fresh to strong winds across the waters N of 27N. A third cold front is expected to sweep across the region Thu night through Fri night, bringing another round of fresh to strong winds north of the Bahamas. $$ Torres