000 AXNT20 KNHC 242152 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Oct 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is E of the Cabo Verde Islands near 22W from 17N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 13N between the African coast and 26W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is approaching Windward Islands near 60W from 16N southward into Guayana and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Aided by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from the coast of Guayana and NE Venezuela to 13N between 53W and 61W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W from the Windward Passage into Colombia, moving W at around 15 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has moved well inland into Colombia. An other tropical wave, that main extends now into the eastern Pacific stretches northward into the Gulf of Honduras. Its axis is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. All associated convection is now in the eastern Pacific. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits through the African coast at Guinea-Bissau near 11N17W to 07N24W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N24W to 04N52W, and into French Guiana. Scattered moderate convection is evident near the ITCZ from 02N to 09N between 23W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 23N87W to 30N84W. A broad area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection associated with this trough extends N of 23N and E of 90W. Another weak surface trough has developed about 60 nm offshore the NE Mexican coast, from Tampico N to the mouth of the Rio Grande. Away from convection, mainly gentle SE wind prevails with seas of 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail Mon and Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop in the western Gulf by Tue night ahead of a strong cold front expected to push off the Texas coast on Wed. The front will move across the Gulf through Fri night. Expect widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas across the northern and central Gulf from Wed through Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on convection across the Caribbean Basin. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades with seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the central and eastern basin. Mainly moderate trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh to locally strong trades E of the Windward Islands and across the eastern Caribbean through Mon night. Winds are also expected to pulse fresh to strong in the Venezuela basin through Mon night. Gentle to moderate tradewinds are expect to prevail across the basin from Tue through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from SW of Bermuda through the NW Bahamas and into the the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in association with this trough N of 25N between 55W and 75W. Another trough extends from 31N41W to 21N46W. Convection previously associated with this trough has diminished this afternoon. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the basin. Mainly moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate N of 24N between the African coast and 54W. N of 24N between 54W and 70W, light to gentle winds prevail, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. W of 70W, Moderate SE winds are increasing, and seas are 3 to 5 ft. S of 24N, moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash clouds and some SO2 have been emitted periodically from the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast W of 65W, a low is expected to develop off the Georgia coast by Mon morning with a cold front sliding off the northeast Florida coast. This will bring fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front Mon through Wed, N of 27N and E of 77W. A second front will move off the U.S. east coast on Tue morning which will bring another round of fresh to strong winds north of the Bahamas. Conditions will improve by Wed and Thu before a third cold front is expected to sweep across the region Thu night through Fri night. $$ KONARIK