000 AXNT20 KNHC 232235 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Oct 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W from 16N southward to French Guiana, moving W around 15 kt. Associated convection is well inland over French Giana and Suriname. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W from Dominican Republic to W Venezuela, moving W near 15 kt. Subsidence and drier air aloft is hindering any significant convection near this wave. Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from Cuba to Panama, and moving W around 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms note from 11N to 16N between 79W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits through the African coast near Guinea- Bissau/Guinea border at 11N15W through a 1011 mb low near 10N16W to well S of the Cabo Verde Islands at 07N22W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N22W to 04N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found near the monsoon trough from 04N to 08N between 14W to 29W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident near the low from 09N to 14N between the NW African coast and 19W. Based on the latest analysis, no significant convection is present near the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1009 mb low pressure near 21N94W has a surface trough extending NW to near Tampico, Mexico. A weakening stationary front stretches from just N of Tampa Bay to near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Although no significant convection is associated with either of these features, significant upper-level moisture and synoptic scale lift is leading to disorganized scattered convection over a broad area of the central and NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are found across much of the Gulf, except locally fresh winds with seas up to 5 ft near showers and thunderstorms. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate by tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin through the weekend and become light to gentle by early next week. A strong cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast on Wednesday and move across the basin through Thu. Expect fresh to strong winds and rough seas across the northern and central Gulf later in the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on convection across the Caribbean Basin. Otherwise moderate to fresh trades dominate the central and eastern basin, with gentle to moderate winds in the west. Some locally strong winds are occurring offshore the South American coast. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the central and eastern basin, and 2 to 4 ft in the west. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh to locally strong trades E of the Windward Islands and across the eastern Caribbean through Mon night. Winds are also expected to pulse fresh to strong in the Venezuela basin tonight through Mon evening. By Tue and Wed, gentle to moderate tradewinds are expect to prevail across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough curves southwestward from SW of Bermuda at 28N71W across the NW Bahamas to N Cuba. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted N of 21N between 62W and 75W. Farther E, a shear line stretches west- southwestward from well SW of the Azores across 31N39W to SE of Bermuda at 29N53W. Convection previously associated with this shear line has dissipated this afternoon. Surface troughs have formed from 31N36W to 22N39W and from 31N27W to 25N23W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for additional convection across the Atlantic Basin. Moderate trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present N of 16N between the NW African coast and 71W. W of 71W, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are seen from the Greater Antilles northward to 31N. Moderate to fresh NE trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft are found from 05N to 16N between 36W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Continues ash emission is noted with small column height. Medium to high volcanic ash concentration in the vicinity of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast W of 65W, the surface trough extending across the northern Bahamas and off the southeast Florida coast will support convection across the region through tonight. Meanwhile, a weak stationary front stretches across northern Florida and adjacent Atlantic waters from 31N78W to 29N81W. This front will slowly meander southward toward South Florida and dissipate by Sun. Expect showers and thunderstorms along this boundary through the rest of the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will develop off the Florida coast on Sun into Mon near the old boundary. $$ KONARIK