000 AXNT20 KNHC 191627 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Oct 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W from 16N southward, moving westward around 15 kt. Little signature of this wave is noted at the surface. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N-08N between 27W-40W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 52W from 17N southward, moving westward around 15 kt. Little signature of this wave is noted at the surface. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-10N between 43W-50W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W from 19N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. The wave axis is noted from the 12 UTC Barbados and Trinidad 700 mb rawindsonde winds. No significant deep convection is noted in association with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Senegal near 13N17W to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 05N30W. It then resumes near 04N33W to 07N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N-08N between 27W-40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-10N between 43W- 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high is centered over North Carolina/Virginia. Equatorward of the high, E winds are moderate to fresh east of 90W and gentle or weaker west of 90W. Isolated moderate convection is noted in the SW Gulf south of 21N as well as from 24N-28N between 85W-91W. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range across the E Gulf and 1-3 ft over the W Gulf. For the forecast, the weakening stationary front across the Straits of Florida will slowly dissipate through Wed. Winds across the Gulf will gradually veer to the E today as high pres to the N slides eastward. Weak high pres will dominate the Gulf for the remainder of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure pattern exists across the Caribbean waters with gentle to moderate trades prevailing. Seas are 2-4 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted over the Caribbean from 13N-21N west of 80W. For the forecast, high pressure building N of the area will bring a return to moderate trade winds to the Caribbean today. Winds will further increase to moderate to fresh winds Wed through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N55W to 24N73W, then becomes a dissipating stationary front to N Cuba. NE winds are moderate to fresh north of the frontal boundary. Scattered showers are occurring within 60 NM of the front. Northeast of the Lesser Antilles, a trough extends from 27N49W to 18N60W. Winds are moderate or weaker in the vicinity of the trough. Scattered showers are occurring within 60 NM of the trough. Farther east, a cold front enters the discussion waters from 31N26W to 26N30W, then becomes a trough extending to a weak 1018 mb low at 27N40W, then continuing as a trough to 25N45W. Winds in the vicinity of the front/trough are gentle. Scattered showers are occurring within 60 NM of the front/trough. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ, the NE to E trades are moderate to fresh. Seas over these waters are mainly in the 4-6 ft range. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash emission on-going. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la- palma/. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will become stationary from near 25N65W to the Straits of Florida late Wed before dissipating Thu night. High pres will shift ESE across the W Atlantic along 31N-32N through Thu, producing moderate to fresh winds immediately north of the front. Expect fresh to locally strong trades E of the Windward Islands Wed night through Sat night. $$ Landsea