000 AXNT20 KNHC 171001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Oct 17 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Gale- force winds are noted over the waters off Veracruz, Mexico. Seas are peaking near 12 ft prevail over this area. The gale- force winds are forecast to continue through the day, with seas building to near 15 ft. Winds and seas will decrease this evening, with winds diminishing below gale force. Marine conditions will continue to improve through early this week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both warnings. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 16/17W south of 15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 05N between 15W and 20W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W south of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 10N between 36W and 41W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W south of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is observed with this tropical wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 73W south of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 71W and 77W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W south of 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to 05N25W to 07N39W. It resumes from 07N41W to 05N51W. Aside from convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N and between 20W and 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale Warning off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico over the SW Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Aside from the gale- force winds off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico, fresh to strong winds prevail west of the front. Seas west of the front are in the 8-11 ft range south of 25N, and 5-8 ft elsewhere west of the front. East of the front, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, Gale- force N winds off of Veracruz, Mexico, and are expected to continue through today. Winds will gradually veer to the E Mon through Tue as the front becomes aligned W to E along 23N and dissipates. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Caribbean waters. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are noted over the central and eastern Caribbean waters south of 14N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean basin will maintain tranquil marine conditions through early Mon. A cold front will enter the NW Atlc over the weekend and move SE. High pressure building in the wake of the front will bring a return to moderate trade winds to the Caribbean Mon night through Tue and then moderate to fresh winds late Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the NW discussion waters from 31N77W to central Florida. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are noted west of the front. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N37W to 25N49W, with a trough continuing to north of Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 150 nm east of the front. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft are also noted east of the front. Over the tropical waters south of 20N, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail. N of 20N and east of 50W, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail. Elsewhere over the tropical and subtropical waters north of 20N and west of 50W, light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Low ash concentrations moving NW. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/ For the forecast west of 65W, a weak pressure pattern prevails across the W Atlc to the SW of Bermuda. A cold front off the SE U.S. coast will continue southeastward across all of Florida by tonight, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Mon morning. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds behind the front through Mon morning. High pres will shift ESE across the W Atlc along 31N-32N Tue through Wed. $$ AL