000 AXNT20 KNHC 110611 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Oct 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 16N southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 10N to 14N between 51W and 55W. While environmental conditions are not supportive for significant development, This wave can still bring locally heavy rain and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Mon night and Tue, then to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wed. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W from Puerto Rico southward to N Venezuela, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present over Puerto Rico and nearby waters. Earlier heavy showers caused by this wave have produced just over 2 inches of rain at Guadeloupe in the Leeward Islands. Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from S of W Cuba southward to near the Guatemala-Panama border, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over S Cuba, Guatemala, Panama and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends through the coast of Senegal near Dakar to S of the Cabo Verde Islands at 13N22W. Farther SW, the ITCZ stretches from 06N26W to 06N47W. Scattered moderate convection is found S of the monsoon trough from 03N to 07N between the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 21W, and also near the ITCZ from 05N to 11N between 31W and 47W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extending southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to S Mexico is supporting pleasant conditions for the entire Gulf. Light to gentle NE to E winds with seas at 2 to 3 ft across the E and central Gulf. Moderate to fresh ESE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail over the W Gulf, including the W Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain over the Gulf for the next few days. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail into mid week over the western Gulf between the ridge and lower pressure over the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere through Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent winds N of the Colombia low is generating scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms over N colombia and Venezuela, and S central basin. Convergent trades are coupling with divergent flow aloft to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles, and nearby E Caribbean and Atlantic waters. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional weather in the basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident across the E and central basin. Light to gentle trades and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the W basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and a few thunderstorms persist over the northeast Caribbean, in association with a tropical wave currently located along 66W, and an upper-level trough north of Puerto Rico. Winds and seas will diminish near the wave as it moves into the central Caribbean through mid week, and into the W Caribbean Thu and Fri. Another tropical wave currently along 52W is forecast to approach the central and N Lesser Antilles by late Mon and early Tues. This system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough reaches southwestward from a low pressure off N Carolinas across the NW Bahamas to NW Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found across N Cuba, central and SE Bahamas, including the Great Bahama Bank. Farther SE, convergent SE trades are coupling with an upper-level low NE of the Leeward Islands near 25N61W to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 18N to 25N between 54W and 62W. A cold front curves southwestward from near the Azores across 31N41W to 30N56W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring N of 29N between 40W and 55W. A pre- frontal trough SE of this front near 29N37W is causing scattered moderate convection N of 26N between 31W and 41W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the basin. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found near the cold front, N of 28N between 40W and 63W. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist N of 20N between 25W and Florida-Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present near the Canary Islands, N of 22N between the NW African coast and 25W. NE to ENE gentle to moderate with locally fresh trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are seen from 10N to 22N between 33W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Currently, volcanic ash is seen over the vicinity of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory, that is issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast W of 65W, scattered thunderstorms are active mainly W of 70W, ahead of the trough extending from N Carolina. The trough and associated weather will move little through Mon, then drift E and weaken through midweek. Farther S, a tropical wave moving through the E Caribbean will bring fresh to strong winds and occasionally rough seas S of 22N through late Mon, then will diminish. Elsewhere, generally moderate winds and seas will persist through Fri. $$ Chan