000 AXNT20 KNHC 100558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Oct 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Satellite-derived wind data and surface observations continue to indicate a large, non-tropical low pressure system located about 100 miles SE of Morehead City, North Carolina. This system is producing a broad area of gale-force winds to the NW, N and NE of the center with seas peaking at 10 to 15 ft, including the N Carolina coast. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity has been concentrating to the N and NE of the center. This system could still become a short- lived subtropical storm through Sunday, but environmental conditions should become unfavorable for any further development on Monday. Regardless of development, intermittent periods of locally heavy rains and gusty winds will affect SE and E portions of N Carolina during the next day or two. Therefore, interests along the N Carolina coast should monitor the progress of this system. There is still a medium chance of development for this low over the next 48 hours. For more details, please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.hurricanes.gov and Mariners can read the latest High Seas Forecast from the Ocean Prediction Center at https://ocean.weather.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W from 18N southwestward and moving W near 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 15N and between 42W and 52W. Another tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles near 61W from 19N southward to near the Venezuela-Guyana border, and moving W near 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 12N to 19N between 57W and 62W. A Caribbean tropical wave is between Jamaica and Haiti along 75W from 19N southward to N Colombia, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms are occurring over E Cuba and near the border of N Colombia and Venezuela. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near Jamaica and Haiti. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough turns southwestward at the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W to near 08N24W. The ITCZ then continues from 08N24W to 11N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up near the ITCZ from 06N to 11N between 31W and 42W. There is no significant convection near the monsoon trough based on this analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1015 mb high over Louisiana/Mississippi to the Bay of Campeche. This feature is dominating most of the Gulf with light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft. For the Florida Straits and W Cuba, the SW end of a surface trough extending from the low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate winds and seas up to 5 ft are possible near these showers and thunderstorms. For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough will continue to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms near the Florida Straits for the next couple of days. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a ridge forecast to dominate the Gulf region during the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh return flow will prevail across the W Gulf through the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Other than the showers and thunderstorms mentioned in the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Waves sections above, gentle to moderate with locally fresh trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft dominate the E and central basin. Light to gentle trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the W basin. For the forecast, a tropical wave with axis along 60W/61W will affect the Lesser Antilles tonight, reaching the US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late on Sun, and Hispaniola on Mon. Increasing shower and thunderstorm activity, gusty winds and moderate to rough seas are expected with the wave passage. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail, except light to gentle winds in the NW Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends southwestward from the low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section across the NW Bahamas to the N coast of Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present from the Great Bahama Bank northward across the Bahamas to off the N Florida-Georgia coast. Farther E, a weak but persistent surface trough near 27N62W is triggering scattered moderate convection SW and S of Bermuda, N of 24N between 59W and 71W. Convergent surface winds to the SE of a cold front near 33N46W are causing scattered moderate convection in the central Atlantic N of 27N between 36W and 44W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Near the axis of the Atlantic ridge, light to gentle winds with seas of 4 to 5 ft exist N of 24N between 37W and 70W. Farther W, gentle to moderate with locally fresh winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident N of 22N between 70W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found from 08N to 24N between 36W and the Lesser Antilles, and also N of 16N between the NW African coast and 37W; including the Canary Islands. Light to gentle winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/ For the forecast W of 65W, a large non-tropical low pressure area remains located N of the area, about 100 miles SE of Morehead City, North Carolina. A surface trough extends from the low center across the NW Bahamas into the Straits of Florida. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are along the trough axis. The trough will remain nearly stationary through at least Mon. A tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean Sea will bring an increase in winds and seas across the SE waters through Mon night. $$ Chan