000 AXNT20 KNHC 080552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Oct 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 16N southward and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 10N between 33W to 36W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is between the Lesser Antilles and Barbados along 59W from 18N southward across N and central Guyana, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from the Atlantic waters westward across the Windward Islands into the E Caribbean Sea. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are found near the Venezuela-Guyana border. A tropical wave is near 91W from the E Bay of Campeche southward across the Mexico-Guatemala border into the E Pacific Ocean, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the central and E Bay of Campeche, including the Mexican coast. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... An ITCZ extends westward from W of the Sierra Leone coastline at 06N15W to 07N34W, then from 07N36W to 04N45W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is flaring up near the first ITCZ from 03N to 10N between 14W and 31W. Scattered moderate convection is present near the second ITCZ from 03N to 08N between 36W and 44W. The weak monsoon trough over N central Africa does not extend beyond the African coast. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front curves southwestward from the Florida Panhandle into the N central Gulf, scattered showers are evident near this feature. A surface trough meanders southwestward from central Florida into the central Gulf. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found across central and S Florida, and also over the central Gulf. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional convection in the Gulf. Light to gentle with locally moderate trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the entire Gulf. For the forecast, a surface trough related to the tropical wave extends from the N central Gulf into the Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient between a surface ridge over E Mexico and the trough will support moderate to locally fresh northerly winds over the Veracruz adjacent waters through early Fri evening. Weak high pressure will build across the E half of the basin late this weekend into early next week, and support moderate to locally fresh return flow W of 90W Sun through Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trades are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over S Cuba and adjacent waters, as well as N Hispaniola and NW Puerto Rico. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional convection in the basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are seen across the E and central basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail over the W basin. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected across the S central Caribbean, and in the Windward passage trough Fri. A tropical wave will move across the tropical Atlantic waters tonight and weaken as it enters the E Caribbean Fri. A low level disturbance accompanied by strong winds and very active weather will reach the Windward Islands on Sat, and move across the E Caribbean through Sun. High pressure will build N of the area late in the weekend and support mainly moderate trades over the E half of the basin Sun through Tue night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front curves southwestward from near the Azores across 31N32W to 28N44W. A surface trough then continues from 29N46W to 27N54W. Scattered moderate convection is present near these features N of 25N between 41W and 54W. Farther W, another surface trough near 25N62W is producing similar conditions from 19N to 28N between 56W and 70W. A surface trough along with a mid-level low near 13N53W or about 450 nm E of the Windward Islands are causing scattered moderate convection from 11N to 15N between 48W and 53W. An upper-level low just N of the Cabo Verde Islands near 20N23W is generating scattered moderate convection from 18N to 24N between the NW African coast and 23W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Light to gentle with locally moderate winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are found near the stationary front and nearby surface trough, N of 24N between 36W and 55W. Light to gentle ENE to ESE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist N of 20N between 55W and the Florida- Georgia coast. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades with seas at 6 to 9 ft are evident from 10N to 20N between 33W and the Lesser Antilles, and also from 17N to 26N between the African coast and 33W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September at 1410 UTC. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory, that is issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast W of 65W, a low pressure area located N of the area about 100 miles off the coast of S Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms well to the east of its center of circulation. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any significant tropical or subtropical development during the next few days. By late this weekend, the low is expected to interact with a frontal boundary located to its N, which should end the opportunity for tropical or subtropical formation. The frontal boundary is forecast to move across the NW Bahamas and S Florida on Sat. $$ Chan