000 AXNT20 KNHC 070613 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Oct 07 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W, from 16N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the ITCZ to 28N from 36W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the Cabo Verde Islands. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate are from 12N to 26N from 27W eastward. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, from 19N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N to 20N between 42W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W, from 17N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas that are from 24N in the Straits of Florida from 77W westward. Scattered to numerous strong, that started in NW Nicaragua and in southern Honduras, has moved into El Salvador and its eastern Pacific Ocean coastal waters. Moderate-to-fresh winds, with a little bit of strong winds, are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 19N southward from 84W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through SW Senegal, to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 06N26W, to 04N31W and 04N51W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, are from 02N to 10N between 18W and 40W, and from 05N to 14N between 40W and 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers much of the area. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the SE sections of the Gulf of Mexico, from 24N southward between 75W in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico stationary front. A stationary front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to 18N94W at the coast of Mexico in the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is at the coast of Mexico near 18N94W. Broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds, and possible rainshowers, are within 300 nm to the west of the stationary front, and from the stationary front eastward. Moderate wind speeds cover the area. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet from 90W eastward, and from 2 feet to 4 feet from 90W westward. A stationary front extending from near Pensacola, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche will meander through Thu before dissipating. Weak high pressure to the NW will support moderate to locally fresh northerly winds over Veracruz adjacent waters through Fri. High pressure will build modestly across the basin during the weekend and continue through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is along 86W, from 17N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas that are from 24N in the Straits of Florida from 77W westward. Scattered to numerous strong, that started in NW Nicaragua and in southern Honduras, has moved into El Salvador and its eastern Pacific Ocean coastal waters. Moderate-to-fresh winds, with a little bit of strong winds, are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 19N southward from 84W westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is on top of the area of the tropical wave. It covers the areas that are from 24N southward, including in the Gulf of Mexico, between 75W in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico stationary front. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 65W eastward, to the 54W/55W Atlantic Ocean tropical wave. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N southward between 60W and 65W. The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, between 74W in Colombia, beyond Panama and Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the waters that are from 13N southward from 73W westward. Near gale-force winds are within 135 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 75W. Strong winds are within 330 nm of the coast of Colombia between 72W and 76W. Strong winds cover the area that is from 19N to 23N between 72W and 78W, including in the Windward Passage, and in the waters that are between the Bahamas, Haiti, and SE Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds cover the rest of the area. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range in the central Caribbean, 3-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean Sea, and 1-3 ft in the western Caribbean Sea. High pressure currently NE of Bermuda extends SW to the SE Bahamas, and will continue to support fresh to locally strong trade winds across the majority of the central Caribbean Sea through early Thu, and then across the south central Caribbean Sea through Thu night. Expect moderate trades across the basin E of 80W Fri through Sat before a disturbance moves W across the northern Windward Islands Sat accompanied by an increase in winds and seas. Otherwise, a tropical wave will reach the tropical Atlantic waters Thu and support moderate to fresh winds and building seas through early in the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough curves along 30N76W, to a 1017 mb low pressure center that is near 29N78.5W, to 27N79W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, isolated to widely scattered strong is within 400 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. The low pressure center is expected to move northward, and then northeastward, 5 to 10 mph off the southeastern coast of the United States during the next few days. Upper level winds are expected to remain too strong for significant development. The system is forecast to interact with a front by the weekend, which also may limit tropical development. It is possible that this weather system may bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the Carolinas late this week and this weekend. A surface trough curves along 25N55W 23N59W 19N60W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 25N to 28N between 45W and 55W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 18N northward between 43W and 60W. A cold front passes through 34N36W to 31N44W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N northward between 27W and 45W. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September at 1410 UTC. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory, that is issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. Strong winds are from 10N to 17N between 36W and 56W. Moderate to fresh winds cover much of the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights: in the 6-8 ft range south of 25N, and 3-5 ft north of 25N. West of the Bahamas, seas are in the 1-3 ft range, except reaching 6 ft north of E Cuba and in the Windward Passage. A surface trough from offshore of Cape Canaveral to low pres 1017 mb near 30.5N79W will continue to generate scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms N of 28N and E of trough to 70W, while drifting NW through Thu morning. High pressure centered NE of Bermuda extending SW to the SE Bahamas will maintain fresh to locally strong trade trades winds across the SE Bahamas and waters N of Hispaniola through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh winds S of 26N will then gradually diminish to gentle to locally moderate Fri and continue through Sun. High pres will build into the region Mon to produce moderate SE to S winds E of 75W. $$ mT