000 AXNT20 KNHC 052205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Oct 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 40W and 45W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W from 17N southward into the E Pacific, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 18N between 74W and 81W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 04N24W to 07N41W. It resumes from 05N45W to 09N58W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 14N between 17W and 25W, from 07N to 10N between 30W and 40W, and from 07N to 10N between 45W and 58W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the coast of Alabama to low pres of 1013 mb near 27N90W to near Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm east of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are noted west of the front, with light to gentle winds east of the front. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range. For the forecast, a weak ridge north of the Gulf will remain over the region through the end of the week, supporting tranquil conditions across the basin. A weak cold front over the NW Gulf will move slowly SE across the Gulf before stalling from the N central Gulf to central Bay of Campeche Wed then dissipating Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 32N60W to Hispaniola. The pressure gradeint between this ridge and climatological low pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the eastern and central Caribbean, except for the far eastern Caribbean where seas are in the 6-7 ft range. Over the western Caribbean, seas are in the 1-3 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure currently E of Bermuda will move further east through Wed. This will continue to produce fresh to strong trade winds across the NE Caribbean and central Caribbean through Thu. Moderate N to NE swell from Sam will affect the tropical Atlc waters through Wed night. Winds and seas will diminish significantly by Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds and scattered moderate convection is with 300 nm east of the trough. Another surface trough extends from 28N46W to 18N52W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the trough. Fresh to strong winds prevail north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, with moderate to fresh winds prevailing elsewhere across the discussion waters. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range across much of the discussion waters, except west of 70W where seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters and 1-3 ft west of the Bahamas. For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure just E of Bermuda will slide slowly eastward through mid week. This will produce moderate to fresh trade winds south of 25N and east of 74W through Tue night before spreading into the southeast Bahamas Wed. The swell generated from Sam will continue to impact the SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas through Wed night. Active weather is expected to continue through Wed across the waters north of the Bahamas, as surface trough moves northwest in the next few days. $$ AL