000 AXNT20 KNHC 221106 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Sep 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized in association with 1010 mb low near 10N31W, along a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. However, satellite wind data indicate that the system still lacks a well- defined center. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and there is a high chance that a tropical depression is likely to form in a day or two while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. A gale warning has been issued accordingly cover the waters mainly from 08N to 12N between 35W and 45W starting early Thu. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Peter NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Depression Peter is centered near 20.8N 65.3W at 22/0300 UTC or 150 nm NNE of San Juan Puerto Rico, and moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Reports from buoy 41043 located just east of the center of Peter indicate seas have subsided and are likely no more than 10 to 11 ft in the vicinity of Peter. Convection had been limited with the center of Peter fully exposed, but there has been a recent burst of convection within 120 nm in the east quadrant of the center of Peter. The depression will continue on a NW track, moving farther away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through this afternoon, then gradually will turn more northward and weaken to a remnant low Thu, before eventually drifting northward and dissipating through the weekend. Meanwhile, swells generated by Peter are affecting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and will continue spreading westward to the Bahamas later today. Tropical Depression Rose is centered near 23.4N 38.4W at 22/0900 UTC or 930 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are peaking at 12 near northeast of the center. An area of fresh to strong winds with seas at 8 to 11 ft are evident up to 210 nm in a semicircle NE of the center. The center of Rose remains fully exposed, to the west of a diminishing area of scattered moderate convection. Rose should gradually turn toward the north tonight or early Thu morning, then turning to the NE on Friday. Rose will remain a tropical depression through Thu and might weaken to a remnant low Friday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Rose NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W from 15N southward through the 1010 mb low near 10N31W, and moving W near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up from 10N to 13N between 30W and 32W. As mentioned in the Special Features section, a gale warning has been issued related to this area of low pressure. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for the latest formation potential. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough passes through the Senegal coast near 14N17W through the 1010 mb low mentioned in the Tropical Waves section to 09N31W. The ITCZ continues from 04N32W 11N55W. No significant convection is noted near the ITCZ. The E end of E Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms off the western Caribbean coast of Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb area of high pressure centered near 26N92W is shifting east ahead of a cold front moving into the northwest Gulf, currently reaching from near Lake Charles, Louisiana to Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the cold front. A few showers are also evident off Sarasota Florida. Fresh NW winds are following the front. Fresh NE winds are noted off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, along with 2 to 4 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over the remainder of the Gulf. For the forecast, the front will continue to move southeastward through Thu, stall from roughly Fort Myers, Florida to the coast of Veracruz, Mexico near 18N95W Fri, then dissipate Sat. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front over the northwest and north- central Gulf into tonight. Fresh to strong winds will funnel along the coast of Veracruz Thu, with seas building to 8 ft. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across basin Sat and Sun as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Peter. Convergent trades are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between the southern peninsula of Haiti and Jamaica, as well as off Colombia. Light to gentle trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail across much of the basin. Seas at the Mona Passage will be higher at 4 to 6 ft due to swell produced by Tropical Depression Peter. For the forecast, Peter will continue to weaken to a remnant low as it moves farther to the north of the area. As this occurs, trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will diminish through Thu night. Fresh trade winds will return to the south-central Caribbean by late Sun as high pressure builds north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depressions Peter NNE of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and Rose WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands; and the gale warning and tropical formation potential related to a low pressure/tropical wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands. The Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands has been erupting since 19/1410 UTC. Satellite imagery shows volcanic ash approximately 30 nm W of the volcano as well as the hot spot related to the eruption. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going situation by reading Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. A cold front curves southwestward from the NE Atlantic across 32N42W to near 27N56W, then continues northwestward as a stationary front to central South Carolina. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are active along the front between 74W and 76W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection across the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted north of the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 8 ft are also noted off northwest Africa. Elsewhere, other than the area near Peter and Rose, generally moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted. For the forecast west of 65W, Peter will move to 22.2N 66.7W this afternoon, 23.2N 66.9W Thu morning, then become a remnant low and move to 24.1N 66.5W Thu afternoon. The remnant low of Peter will continue northward to 25.1N 65.8W Fri morning, 26.5N 64.7W Fri afternoon, and dissipate Sat. Meanwhile, a cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight, continue to the southeast Thu, stall from 31N77W to near Fort Pierce, Florida by late Fri, then dissipate through late Sat. $$ Christensen