244 AXNT20 KNHC 210546 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Sep 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Peter is centered near 19.8N 62.8W at 21/0300 UTC or 95 nm N of the northern Leeward Islands, and moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking at 12 to 14 ft near and just N of the center. An area of strong to gale winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are found farther NE of the center from 18N to 23N between 58W and 61W. Numerous to isolated strong convection is seen up to 190 nm in a semicircle E of the center. Peter will continue to move WNW with little change in speed through Tuesday night, passing well N of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands early Tuesday evening; then follow by a gradual turn to the N with decreasing speed on Wed. Peter is forecast to start a slow weakening trend late Tuesday morning. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible across the Greater Antilles except Jamaica and Cuba through Tuesday; increasing the potential for urban and small stream flooding. Swells generated by Peter will also impact these same locations through Tues before reaching the Bahamas by midweek, producing high surf and strong rip currents. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Marine interests in the area can read the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecasts at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php Tropical Storm Rose is centered near 18.9N 35.4W at 21/0300 UTC or 675 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking at 11 to 12 ft near and just NE of the center. An area of strong to gale winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are found farther E and SE of the center from 17N to 20N between 32W and 34W. Scattered moderate convection is found near the center from 16N to 20N between 33W and 36W. Rose is expected to continue on a NW track with a decrease in forward speed through Wed, then turn toward NNW on Thu. No significant change in strength is anticipated through Tuesday, with weakening likely beginning Tue night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. For sea conditions near this system, please read the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show some signs of organization, although recent satellite wind data indicate that the system lacks a surface circulation. Upper-level winds, however, are expected to become conducive for further development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Thursday or Friday while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system has a medium chance of formation in the next 48 hours. For more information, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands southward through a 1010 mb low near 09N24W, and moving W near 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 14N between 25W and 29W. Refer to the Special Features section above for formation potential of this system. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean at the Senegal coast near 14N17W through the above mentioned 1010 mb low pressure to 09N34W. The ITCZ then continues from 09N34W to 05N48W. Other than the convection near the tropical wave/low, no significant convection is evident near the monsoon trough or ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A modest 1015 mb high over the E Gulf near 26N86W is dominating the entire area with light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the E and central Gulf of Mexico through Tue. This pattern will support continued gentle to moderate winds and mostly slight seas across the Gulf. An early season cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Wed and reach from the NE Gulf to central Bay of Campeche by late Thu before stalling, supporting increased winds and seas over the NW and N central Gulf Tue night through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Peter which is forecast to track well north of the NE Caribbean. Aided by an upper-level low near Jamaica at 18N78W, convergent trades are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the N central basin, including SE Cuba and Hispaniola. Moderate trades and seas near 4 ft exit across the S central basin, while gentle trades and seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Peter is northeast of the Leeward Islands near 19.8N 62.8W 1008 mb at 21/0300 UTC, and moving WNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peter will continue to move northward through mid week, then weaken to a tropical depression early Thu before continuing toward Bermuda through the remainder of the week. As this occurs, trade winds over the S central Caribbean will diminish through Thu night. Look for associated showers and thunderstorms to affect the NE Caribbean and adjacent waters through Tue morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Peter located N of the northern Leeward Islands and Tropical Storm Rose situated WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands. In addition, the potential of tropical cyclone formation for a tropical wave/low pressure near the Cabo Verde Islands is also available. The Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands has been erupting since 19/1410 UTC. The ash plume is expected to remain below 8,000 ft in the vicinity of the volcano while drifting SW, causing a reduction in visibility. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going situation by reading Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/ A cold front extends west-southwestward, entering the forecast area near 31N53W to SSE of Bermuda at 29N63W, then continues west-northwestward as a stationary front to the Georgia-N Florida coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near and S of this frontal boundary N of 25N between 61W and the Florida- Georgia coast, including the NW Bahamas. Convergent trades are causing similar conditions over the SE Bahamas. A robust upper- level trough well W of the Canary Islands near 28N35W is producing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 23N to 28N between 26W and 36W. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the influence of Tropical Storms Peter and Rose, gentle to moderate with locally fresh winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are present N of 20N between 40W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Mostly moderate to fresh NE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found N of 15N between the NW African coast and 40W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail across the rest of the basin. For the forecast west of 65W, Tropical Storm Peter near 19.8N 62.8W 1008 mb at 21/0300 UTC is moving WNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peter will move to 20.4N 64.2W Tue morning, and 21.3N 66.0W Tue evening. Peter will continue northward reaching 22.3N 67.2W Wed morning, 23.2N 67.7W Wed evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 24.0N 67.7W Thu morning, then move to 25.1N 67.2W by Thu evening. Peter will continue to move northward toward Bermuda through the rest of the week. Elsewhere west of 70W, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist over open waters through the early part of the week, with swell to 8 ft associated with Peter reaching the waters E of 72W by early Wed. $$ Chan