000 AXNT20 KNHC 081814 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Sep 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Larry is centered near 27.7N 58.3W at 08/1500 UTC or 435 nm SE of Bermuda and moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Seas are peaking at 36 to 37 ft near and just N of the center. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted near and N of the center from 27N to 30N between 55W and 60W. Scattered moderate convection is found E and SE of the center from 25N to 27N between 55W and 57W. Larry will continue on a NW track through Thu morning, then gradually turning N with the center passing E of Bermuda on Thu afternoon. Larry should maintain near the current strength through Thu morning before a gradual weakening trend afterward. For more information, please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml. A surface trough extends northeastward from the SW Gulf of Mexico at 22N95W to the NE Gulf near 29N89W. Aided by a mid to upper- level disturbance, scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up across the central and NE Gulf from 23N to the Florida Panhandle and Mississippi coastlines. This trough is expected to move northeastward over the NE Gulf through this afternoon. Upper-level winds could become slightly more favorable to support some tropical or subtropical development as the trough nears the northern Gulf coast tonight or early Thu. Afterward, it is expected to cross the SE United States, and some additional development will be possible after it emerges off the SE United States coast late this week. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the Florida panhandle and S Georgia through Thursday, with localized flooding possible. There is a medium chance of tropical or subtropical formation in the next 48 hours. Please, read the Tropical Weather Outlook, at the following web address: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W from 19N southward across the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 20W and 24W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 16N southward and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 08N to 15N between 35W and 42W. A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W from 15N southward across Guyana, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present over N Guyana and NE Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough passes through the Senegal-Guinea Bissau border near 13N17W to 10N29W. Farther W, the ITCZ extends from 08N39W to 08N57W, just N of Guyana-Suriname border. Scattered moderate convection is seen SW of the monsoon trough from 06N to 08N between 30W and 33W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident near the ITCZ from 06N to 09N between 45W and 57W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a trough of low pressure with the potential for tropical development in the NE Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are found across the central and NE Gulf, especially near stronger thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are occurring at the SE Gulf, while light to gentle winds are seen for the W Gulf; seas at both areas are near 3 ft. For the forecast, the surface trough and upper-level disturbance continue to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms over the central and E Gulf. The trough is expected to move northeastward over the NE Gulf this afternoon. Upper-level winds could become slightly more favorable to support some tropical or subtropical development as the system nears the N Gulf coast tonight or early Thu. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are combining with an upper-level trough across W Cuba and the N central basin to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the central and E basin, including Jamaica. Converging surface winds near the E end of the E Pacific monsoon trough are causing isolated thunderstorms near the coast of Honduras, Guatemala and W Panama. Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft are evident over the central basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, swells generated by Hurricane Larry will continue to propagate across the Atlantic waters of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola through tonight. Seas will gradually subside from E to W. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trade winds will persist, pulsing to fresh to possibly locally strong winds off Colombia mainly at night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Major Hurricane Larry SE of Bermuda. SW of Bermuda, a surface trough near 28N68W is coupling with an upper-level trough near 30N71W to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 28N between 67W and 70W. Farther W, converging SW to W winds are producing similar conditions from the NW Bahamas and northward to near 30N. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection across the Atlantic Basin. Large swell generated by Larry are creating 7 to 11-ft seas from N of Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands to beyond 31N. Seas at 6 to 10 ft are seen E of Larry, N of 21N between 45W and 53W. Moderate to locally fresh NE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found near the Canary Islands N of 17N between the NW African coast and 28W. Light to gentle with locally moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, large swells generated by Hurricane Larry, passing well E of the area, will continue to propagate across the SW N Atlantic. Seas of 8 ft or more can be expected mainly E of 70W today, spreading to 75W Thu, and potentially 80W Thu night into Fri. Developing low pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico is expected to move northeastward over the NE Gulf of Mexico later today. Upper-level winds could become slightly more favorable to support some tropical or subtropical development as the system nears the northern Gulf coast tonight or early Thursday. The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United States, and some additional development will be possible after it emerges off the southeastern United States coast late this week. $$ Chan