000 AXNT20 KNHC 070909 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Sep 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Major Hurricane Larry at 07/0900 UTC is near 23.8N 55.1W. Larry is moving toward the NW, or 315 degrees, at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 105 knots with gusts to 130 knots. Larry is about 800 nm SE of Bermuda. Numerous strong convection is occurring within 210 nm of the center. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31N, from 18N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 17N between 23W and 34W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W, from 15N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 04N to 08N between 45W and 53W. A tropical wave previously in the Caribbean is now mainly in the eastern Pacific Ocean, with only a small portion of the wave still in the Gulf of Honduras. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over portions of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and adjacent Caribbean waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues to 12N27W to 07N35W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N35W to 04N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along the coast of Guinea. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 30W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is along 91W, from 25N southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 21N to 26N between 85W and 92W. Elsewhere throughout the Gulf, only isolated convection is ongoing. The surface through previously in the NE Gulf and an outflow boundary in the northern Gulf from earlier inland convection have both dissipated early this morning. Generally gentle southerly winds prevail across the basin, although to the east of the surface trough and N of the Yucatan Peninsula, moderate to locally fresh SE winds are occurring. Seas are 3 ft or less. For the forecast, weak low pressure N of the Yucatan Peninsula will move slowly NE over the central and NE Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. Upper level winds are currently unfavorable for development, but they are forecast to become somewhat conducive for limited development as the system nears the northern Gulf coast Wed and Wed night. Aside from this low pressure, high pressure will bring light to gentle winds and slight seas into late week. CARIBBEAN SEA... See Tropical Waves section above for details on a wave exiting the basin into Central America this morning. Aside from the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is ongoing in the vicinity of the eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough, that stretches from 10N75W into southern Nicaragua. The convection is confined to areas S of 15N and W of 70W. Otherwise, only isolated trade wind showers are moving E in moderate trades. Seas are 3 to 6 ft, highest in the south central Caribbean. Atlantic passages in the Leeward Islands are experiencing swell from Major Hurricane Larry, that is well NE of the area, so some seas of 4 to 7 ft are observed. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Larry will continue to move farther north of the area into late week. Associated moderate to large swell will continue to move into the region through mid week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trade winds will persist, pulsing to fresh winds off Colombia mainly at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Hurricane Larry information is given in the Special Features section above. A low pressure trough from 31N68W to 28N74W is inducing scattered moderate convection from 24N to 31N between 65W and 75W. Otherwise, and aside from Hurricane Larry, high pressure dominates the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb high pressure centered near 32N47W and a 1016 mb high pressure centered near 26N70W. This is leading to generally gentle winds, aside from S of 20N, where moderate to locally fresh trades prevail. Seas average 3 to 6 ft. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Larry will move to 24.9N 56.0W this afternoon, 26.5N 57.4W Wed morning, 28.4N 59.1W Wed afternoon, 30.6N 60.8W Thu morning, 33.3N 61.8W Thu afternoon, and 37.1N 61.0W Fri morning. Larry will become extratropical as it moves near Newfoundland early Sat. Large swell generated by Larry will continue to propagate across the eastern forecast waters, reaching 70W by Wed, and 75W Thu night. $$ KONARIK