000 AXNT20 KNHC 310558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Aug 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Ida is centered near 33.3N 89.5W at 31/0300 UTC or 70 nm NNE of Jackson, Mississippi and moving NE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Convergent gentle to moderate S to SW winds feeding toward Ida are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NE Gulf, including SW Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Seas are ranging from 6 to 9 ft across the NE Gulf. Ida is forecast to remain a tropical depression through Tue evening, then becoming extratropical on Wed. Please read the latest WPC Public Advisory at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropical_advisories.php?storm=IDA and Storm Summary Message at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html for more details. Tropical Storm Kate is centered near 22.7N 50.9W at 31/0300 UTC or 700 nm ENE of the Leeward Islands moving N at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 11 to 13 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring mainly NE, E and SE of the center from 19N to 25N between 46W and 51W due to strong wind shear aloft. A slow northward motion is expected through Tue evening, then turning toward the NNW on Wed. Kate is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Tue, then strengthen back to a tropical storm Wed with little change in intensity through the end of the week. Kate is forecast to dissipate during this weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Satellite-derived wind data and satellite imagery indicate that an 1007 mb area of low pressure is persisting over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic near 08.5N16.3W in close proximity with a tropical wave that recently moved off the west coast of Africa. Numerous moderate to strong convection is flaring up just N of the low, near the tropical wave from 09N to 13N between 17W and 20W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the low from 05N to 09N between 15W and 19W. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. There is a high chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 17W from 19N southward, just off the Senegal-Gambia coast, and moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Associated convection is described in the Special Features section above. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 20N southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 11N between 30W and 36W. A weak Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W from 17N southward and moving slowly W near 5 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W, over the Virgin Islands from 20N southward into NE Venezuela, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found over NE Venezuela. Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, near the E coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from 19N southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the E Pacific Ocean, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Enhanced by the eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present over S Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near the border of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea at 11N15W through a low pressure system at 08N16W to 13N30W to 11N41W. Scattered moderate convection is evident near and S of the monsoon trough from 06N to 11N between 20W and 26W. Latest analysis reveals no ITCZ in the Atlantic Basin. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for information on convection related to Tropical Depression Ida and sea states across the NE Gulf. A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from N Florida across the central Gulf to central Mexico. Light to gentle SE to S winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft dominate much of Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SW winds associated with the circulation of Ida will continue to affect the NE Gulf of Mexico through Wed night. Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region producing mainly southerly winds through Fri. Pulsing fresh winds are expected NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through Wed night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward from a low pressure system near the Costa Rica-Panama border at 09N82W to E Panama at 09N79W. Trade winds converging into these features are causing scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over the SW and S central Caribbean Basin. Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are existed over the SW basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure-gradient between a ridge east of Florida and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds over the south-central Caribbean. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night. Elsewhere moderate trades or weaker will prevail. The passage of a tropical wave will bring some increase in winds and seas first in the SW Caribbean, then in the NW Caribbean Wed through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kate. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection across the Atlantic Basin. Convergent winds S of a weak cold front near 30N50W are triggering scattered moderate convection N of 26N between 40W and 54W. An upper-level trough near 27N33W is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 24N to 28N between 30W and 36W. A modest surface ridge curves westward from a weak 1018 mb high centered at 29N28W to another high off the Georgia-Florida coast near 31N78W. These features are supporting light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft from 10N to 27N between 24W and Georgia- Florida coast/Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft related to the cold front are evident N of 27N between 36W and 66W. Moderate to fresh trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present near the Canary Islands N of 17N between the NW African coast and 24W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh monsoonal SSW to W winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are occurring from the Equator to 10N between the African coast and 38W. Light to gentle E to SE trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will prevail through Wed, which will result in light to gentle winds. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop over NE Florida offshore waters by Wed ahead of a cold front forecast to clip the NW waters late Thu into Fri. $$ Chan