000 AXNT20 KNHC 301755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Aug 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ida is centered near 31.9N 90.7W at 30/1500 UTC or 30 nm SW of Jackson Mississippi moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. XXX Sea heights near the SE Louisiana coast are as high as 12 ft, which should diminish below 8 ft by Tue afternoon. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection prevail north of 26N between 85W-95W. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4, for more details. Please, refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for marine impacts. Tropical Storm Kate is centered near 21.5N 50.9W at 30/1500 UTC or 670 nm ENE of the Leeward Islands moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas are to 9 ft. Scattered showers are present within 300 NM of the E semicircle. A general northward motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northwest on Tuesday night or Wednesday. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days. Some slow strengthening is forecast by Thursday.Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa along 15W is expected to move over the eastern Tropical Atlantic later today. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-10N between 13W-18W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for the development of a low pressure area once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter part of the week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt over the eastern tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W from 18N southward and moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-10N between 28W-33. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W from 17N southward and moving W around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W from 19N southward across the Lesser Antilles into NE Venezuela, and moving W around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted in association with this wave. Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 19N southward across Costa Rica into the E Pacific, and moving W near 10 kt. Enhanced by the E end of the Pacific monsoon trough, scattered to numerous moderate convection and isolated strong convection are present from 10N-14N west of 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 09N42W. In addition to the convection noted in association with the Atlantic tropical waves, moderate convection is occurring from 08N-11N between 20W-25W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features Section above for information on T.S. Ida. Outside of the effects of Ida, winds are moderate or weaker across the Gulf primarily out of the south. Seas are 4-6 ft over most of the Gulf, mainly due to swell from Ida. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ida will continue moving northward while weakening. Fresh to strong winds associated with Ida will continue to affect the north-central gulf today through the evening. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin afterwards continuing through Wed. Winds will further diminish to gentle to locally moderate by mid-week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection. The pressure-gradient between ridging east of Florida and a 1010 mb low near 10N78W is contributing toward fresh to strong NE to E winds over the S central Caribbean. Elsewhere the trades are moderate or weaker. Seas peak at 7-9 ft just north of Colombia and are 3-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are expected through Tue, except for locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean today. Tropical wave will enhance winds in the SW Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras Wed into Thu. Moderate to locally fresh winds will dominate the basin through the remainder of the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Kate and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A weak cold front extends from 31N50W to 30N60W to 31N67W. SW winds ahead of the front are fresh to strong north of 28N between 40W-45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 29N between 40W-50W in association with a pre-frontal trough. A weak 1019 mb high is centered at 30N25W and the trades - except in the vicinity of Tropical Storm Kate - are moderate or weaker across the basin. Seas are 4-6 ft. For the forecast W of 65W, a weak pressure gradient will prevail through Wed, which will result in light to gentle variable winds. Moderate to fresh SW winds will develop over NE Florida offshore waters by Wed night ahead of a cold front moving E just N of the area. Moderate to fresh SW winds will cover the offshore waters N of the Bahamas through Thu. $$ Landsea