000 AXNT20 KNHC 300555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Aug 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Now a Category Two Hurricane, Ida is centered near 30.3N 90.7W at 30/0300 UTC or 35 nm WSW of New Orleans, Louisiana and moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Sea heights near the SE Louisiana coast are as high as 16 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is over SE parts of Louisiana and SW Mississippi, scattered moderate convection has spread to central Louisiana and W central Mississippi, and the W Florida Panhandle. A rainband S of the center is causing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection across the N central Gulf. Ida will weaken further as it turns northward into W central Mississippi but should remain a hurricane through tonight before weakening into a tropical storm Mon morning, then a tropical depression Mon evening as it turns toward the NE into N Mississippi. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4, for more details. Please, refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for marine impacts. Julian has begun interacting with a cold front and is undergoing extratropical transition this evening. It is centered near 38.1N 41.9W at 30/0300 UTC or about 705 nm W of the Azores and moving NE at 23 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted mostly NE of the center from 37N to 41N between 38W and 42W. Julian is forecast to stay on a N to NE track with an increase in speed through Mon night, and become a post tropical storm WNW of the Azores. Please, read the last NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the last Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 20.1N 50.6W at 30/0300 UTC or 660 nm ENE of the Leeward Islands and moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen mainly E of the center from 19N to 21N between 47W and 50W. Little change in strengthen is expected through Mon but Ten could become a tropical storm toward midweek. It is expected to continue on a general northward track with a slight decrease in speed through midweek. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa by Monday night. Environmental conditions appear conducive for the development of a low pressure area once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter part of the week while the system moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance of tropical formation in the next 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W from 19N southward and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 26W and 34W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 17N southward and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 11N to 15N between 36W and 45W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 61W from 19N southward across the Lesser Antilles into NE Venezuela, and moving W around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over central Venezuela. Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from 20N southward across W Panama into the E Pacific, and moving W near 15 kt. Enhanced by the E end of the Pacific monsoon trough, numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are present over E Panama and N Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found at the SW corner of the Caribbean Basin. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W through a low pressure system at 15N27W to 10N40W. The ITCZ then stretches from 09N46W to 10N56W. Numerous strong convection is noted S of the monsoon trough along the African coast from 11N to 17N and E of 19W. Scattered moderate convection is evident farther S from 05N to 11N and E of 19W, and also near the ITCZ from 08N to 13N between 48W and 56W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features Section above for information on Hurricane Ida. Outside of the effects of Ida, fresh to locally strong SE to S winds and seas at 7 to 11 ft dominate the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, Hurricane Ida is near 30.3N 90.7W 953 mb at 11 PM EDT or 0300 UTC and moving NNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts 110 kt. Ida will continue moving inland while weakening to a tropical storm near 31.5N 90.8W Mon morning, then weaken to a tropical depression near 33.0N 90.1W Mon evening, to 34.6N 88.5W Tue morning, to 36.1N 85.9W Tue evening, to 37.5N 82.5W Wed morning, and become extratropical and move to 38.9N 78.8W Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds associated with Ida will continue to affect the north-central gulf through Mon evening. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin afterwards continuing through Wed. Winds will further diminish to gentle to locally moderate by Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection. Fresh to strong trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft continue across the S central basin N of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected through Tue, except for locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through early Mon. A tropical wave will enhance winds in the SW Caribbean Mon evening through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh winds will dominate the basin the remainder period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for details on Post Tropical Storm Julian and Tropical Depression Ten. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with a cold front near 31N are found N of 30N between 45W and 65W. An upper-level low near 25N41W is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 22N to 27N between 43W. Please read the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection across the Atlantic Basin. A surface ridge curves westward from a 1020 mb Azores high to a 1023 mb Bermuda high. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft related to the cold front are found N of 29N between 39W and 66W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present from 10N to 29N between 25W and the Florida-Georgia coast/Lesser Antilles. Moderate with locally fresh winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft dominate waters near the Canary Islands N of 20N between the NW African coast and 25W. Light to gentle SE to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 65W, a weak pressure gradient will prevail through Wed, which will result in light to gentle variable winds. Moderate to fresh SW winds will develop over NE Florida offshore waters by Wed night ahead of a cold front moving E just N of the area. Moderate to fresh SW winds will cover the offshore waters N of the Bahamas through Thu. $$ Chan