000 AXNT20 KNHC 291015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Aug 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ida is centered near 28.0N 89.1W at 29/0900 UTC or 70 nm S of the mouth of The Mississippi River moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. The maximum sea heights are 38 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of 25N between 86W-91W. Outer rainbands are found across the NE Gulf, including the Florida Big Band area. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will continue moving across the north-central Gulf of Mexico this morning, and make landfall along the coast of southeastern Louisiana within the hurricane warning area this afternoon or evening. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night. Rapid weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for marine impacts. Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 17.3N 49.8W at 29/0900 UTC or 690 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The maximum sea heights are near 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly E of the center from 13N-19N between 44W-50W. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm in the next 24 hours. Little change in strength is expected thereafter through early this week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Eleven is centered near 34.0N 48.6W at 29/0900 UTC or 1070 nm W of the Azores moving NE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The maximum sea heights are near 11 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 31N- 40N between 40W-50W. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become to a tropical storm later today. The system is then forecast to become post-tropical by Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W from 19N southward across the E Cape Verde Islands, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 08N to 13N between 19W and 25W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 17N southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 11N to 16N between 33W and 40W. A Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 18N59W to 03N64W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring across the southern portion of the wave currently moving over Venezuela. A Carribbean tropical wave is near 77W from E Cuba southward to Colombia, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Much drier air at mid and upper levels is hindering any significant convection near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W to 10N37W. The ITCZ extends from 05N40W to 07N48W. Aside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section above, no other activity is noted at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Ida, which is a major hurricane expected to make landfall over SE Louisiana today. Convergent moderate to fresh SE to S winds feeding toward Hurricane Ida are triggering scattered showers across the E Gulf, including the Gulf coast of central and S Florida, and the Keys. Seas are ranging from 5 to 8 ft in the area. Subsidence along with surface ridging W of Ida is promoting light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, Hurricane Ida will move to 29.1N 90.3W this afternoon, inland to 30.6N 91.1W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.2N 91.0W Mon afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 33.8N 90.0W Tue morning, inland to 35.4N 87.9W Tue afternoon, and inland to 36.7N 85.2W Wed morning. Ida will move inland over 38.9N 78.9W by early Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the Caribbean Sea. Modest convergent SE winds are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean Basin, including W Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Convergent trade winds are coupling with southerly wind shear aloft to cause scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW basin, N of Venezuela. Fresh to strong trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft are present across the S central basin, N of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected through the forecast period, except for locally strong winds in the south- central Caribbean through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for information on tropical depressions Ten and Eleven. An upper-level low near 23N43W is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 20N-27N between 37W-43W. A surface trough extends southwestward from Tropical Depression Eleven to near 28N58W. Another trough is analyzed from 32N33W to 29N39W. No significant convection is noted with these troughs at this time. A surface ridge meanders west-southwestward from a 1020 mb Azores high across S of Bermuda to N Florida. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft are noted N of 22N between 28W and Georgia- Florida coast. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft are present from 12N to 22N between 51W and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist near the Canary Islands N of 21N between the NW African coast and 28W. Other than near Tropical Depression Ten, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 65W, surface ridging will extend southward into the SW N Atlantic through tonight supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds. A weak pressure gradient will prevail through the remainder of the forecast period, which will result in light to gentle variable winds. $$ ERA