000 AXNT20 KNHC 281756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Aug 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ida is near 24.8N 86.1W 984 mb at 28/1500 UTC EDT moving NW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. The maximum sea heights are 30 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is found mainly from 24N-26N between 84W-87W. An outer band with numerous moderate to strong Convection is also noted 100 nm E of the eye of the storm from 23N to 27N between 82W to 84W. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and move over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and early Sunday. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland over portions of Louisiana or western Mississippi later Monday. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for marine impacts. Tropical Depression Ten is near 14.8N 50.1W at 28/1500 UTC or 695 nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N-18N between 45W-50W. On the forecast track, the depression is moving toward the north and this general motion is forecast to continue during the next several days. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low pressure located over the central Atlantic has become a little better organized overnight. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for further development. However, a tropical depression could still form within the next couple of days. By midweek, the system is forecast to be absorbed by a frontal system. The disturbance is expected to drift eastward through today, then accelerate northeastward Sunday toward the central north Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has moved off the African coast along 16W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 11N-17N along the coast of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea E of 20W. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W from 17N southward and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 18N southward and moving W near 15 kt. This wave is in proximity of T.D. Ten mentioned in the Special Features section above. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-16N between 53W-60W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W from 20N southward across Hispaniola to N Venezuela, and moving W near 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the southern portion of the wave currently extending across Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 15N17W to 10N29W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N38W to 09N48W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 04N to 09N between 37W to 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Ida, which is forecast to become a major hurricane over the central Gulf. A surface trough extends from 28N92W to 19N90W. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the northern portion of the trough north of 25N to the northern coast of Louisiana and SE Texas. This activity is aided by an upper-level low over the NW Gulf near 25N93W. Gentle to moderate ENE to E trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident across NE Gulf. Light to gentle E to ESE winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the western Gulf. In the southeast Gulf including the Straits of Florida SE winds are moderate to fresh with seas 8 to 12 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Ida near 24.8N 86.1W 984 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Ida will move to 26.3N 87.9W this evening, 28.0N 89.8W Sun morning, 29.4N 91.0W Sun evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.0N 91.5W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 32.7N 91.0W Mon evening, and inland to 34.4N 89.8W Tue morning. Ida will move inland near 36.8N 85.3W early Wed. Light to gentle variable winds are expected in the SW gulf and far western basin through Mon. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh return flow will establish across most of the basin Tue and Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the Caribbean Sea. Convergent fresh to strong SE to S winds feeding toward Hurricane Ida over the SE Gulf of Mexico are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across W Cuba and W of Jamaica. Seas across the N central and NW Caribbean Basin are in the range of 7 to 10 ft, including the Yucatan Channel. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Ida. Outside of the influence of Ida, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from the ABC Islands north along the Lesser Antilles. Dry Moderate trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail across much of the basin. The exception is light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft along the W edge of the basin. For the forecast, weather conditions in the NW Caribbean associated with Ida will dissipate today. Moderate to fresh winds are expected elsewhere through the forecast period, except for locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Sun to Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for information on T.D. Ten and the low pressure that has the potential for tropical development. Also, refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more details on these features. Convergent E to ESE winds well NE of Hurricane Ida is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Florida coast and the NW Bahamas. An upper-level trough SE of Bermuda near 31N51W is coupling with a surface low in the vicinity to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 26N between 47W and 52W. A surface ridge near the coast of North Carolina extends southeast Across the western Atlantic to near 29N69W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft are found N of 27n between 22W and 60W. To the far east, a surface trough is noted extending from 31N29W to 25N36W. A 1022 mb high pressure is center near 31N22W with gentle to moderate winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are found in the region. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present from 10N to 18N between 54W and the Lesser Antilles, and also near the Canary Islands N of 18N between the NW African coast and 22W. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft exist from the Equator to 06N between 35W and the S American coast. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4to 6 ft prevail elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 65W, surface ridging will extend southward into the SW N Atlantic through Sun night supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds. A weak pressure gradient will prevail through the remainder of the forecast period, which will result in light to gentle variable winds. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse N of Hispaniola during the evening hours through tonight. $$ TORRES/KONARIK