000 AXNT20 KNHC 281038 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Aug 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ida is centered near 24.0N 85.2W at 28/0900 UTC or 440 nm SE of New Orleans Louisiana moving NW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. The maximum sea heights are 23 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found mainly from 22N-27N between 80W-87W. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and over the north central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area by late Sunday or early Monday, then move through portions of Louisiana or western Mississippi later on Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for marine impacts. The 1007 mb low pressure analyzed in this map near 14.0N 49.9W is now called Tropical Depression Ten. The Depression is moving NNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N-18N between 45W- 50W. By this afternoon, the depression is forecast to move northward, and then maintain that general motion into early next week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to remain over the open Atlantic well to the east of the Lesser Antilles. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. An elongated area of low pressure located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles east of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and isolated thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development. However, a tropical depression could still form by early next week. The disturbance is expected to drift eastward through tonight and Saturday, then accelerate northeastward Sunday toward the central north Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W from 18N southward and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 04N-10N between 33W-40W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 18N southward and moving W near 15 kt. This wave is in close proximity with the 1007 mb low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section above, and the significant convection is related to the low. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W from 20N southward across the E coast of Hispaniola to N Venezuela, and moving W near 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the southern portion of the wave currently extending across Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 16N22W to 07N36W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N36W to 07N48W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 11N55W to 11N62W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ mainly west of 55W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Ida, which is forecast to become a major hurricane over the central Gulf on Sat night; before making landfall along the Louisiana-Mississippi coastline on Sun. A surface trough extends from 29N92W to 23N92W. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the northern portion of the trough north of 28N. This activity is aided by an upper-level low over the NW Gulf near 25N93W. Gentle to moderate ENE to E trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident across central and NE Gulf. Light to gentle E to ESE winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, Hurricane Ida will move to 25.4N 86.9W this afternoon, 27.1N 88.9W Sun morning, 28.6N 90.5W Sun afternoon, inland to 30.1N 91.3W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.6N 91.2W Mon afternoon, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 33.2N 90.5W Tue morning. Ida will move inland over 36.0N 87.0W by early Wed. Light to gentle variable winds are expected in the SW gulf and far western basin through Mon. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh return flow will establish across the basin by mid-week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Convergent fresh to strong SE to S winds feeding toward Hurricane Ida over the SE Gulf of Mexico are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across W Cuba. Seas across the N central and NW Caribbean Basin are in the range of 7 to 10 ft, including the Yucatan Channel. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Ida. Outside of the influence of Ida, dry conditions along with gentle to moderate trades and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail across much of the basin. The exception is light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft along the W edge of the basin. For the forecast, Weather conditions in the NW Caribbean associated with Ida will dissipate today. Moderate to fresh winds are expected elsewhere through the forecast period, except for locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Sun to Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for information on T.D. Ten and the low pressure that has the potential for tropical development. Also, refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more details on these features. Convergent E to ESE winds well NE of Hurricane Ida is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Florida coast and the NW Bahamas. An upper-level trough SE of Bermuda near 31N60W is coupling with a surface low in the vicinity to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 27N between 50W and 54W. A surface ridge curves westward from a 1020 mb Azores high near 32N20W to NE of the Georgia coast. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft are found N of 22n between 22W and 70W. Gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and seas at 5 to 6 ft are found N of 22N between 70W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present from 10N to 22N between 45W and the Lesser Antilles, and also near the Canary Islands N of 18N between the NW African coast and 22W. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft exist from the Equator to 06N between 35W and the S American coast. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 65W, surface ridging will extend southward into the SW N Atlantic through Sun night supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds. A weak pressure gradient will prevail through the remainder of the forecast period, which will result in light to gentle variable winds. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse N of Hispaniola during the evening hours through Sat night. $$ ERA