000 AXNT20 KNHC 271048 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Aug 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ida is centered near 20.0N 81.4W at 27/0900 UTC or 40 nm NNW of Grand Cayman moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The maximum sea heights are reaching 12 ft mainly within 60 nm in the NE quadrant. Scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails from 13N-23N between 74W- 83W. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move away from the Cayman Islands this morning, pass near or over the Isle of Youth and western Cuba later today, and over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4, for more details. Refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for marine impacts. A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 33N53W, about 650 nm to the E of Bermuda. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 27N- 35N between 50W-55W. Environmental conditions are only forecast to be marginally conducive for development, but a tropical depression could still form over the weekend. The system is expected to move slowly eastward during the next day or two, but a faster northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Sunday. This system has a medium chance for tropical formation during the next 48 hours. A tropical wave with axis along 46W, from 18N southward, is moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before it moves into an environment of stronger upper-level winds and slightly cooler waters. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward for another day or so and then turn northward over the weekend. This system has a high chance for tropical formation during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W, from 18N southward, moving westward 10 kt. Scattered showers prevail from 05N-10N between 23W-33W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W, from 15N southward, moving W 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails inland over portions of Central America mainly south of 13N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 17N16W to 10N23W to 14N31W to low pressure near 12N46W 1008 mb to 07N50W. THe ITCZ continues from that point to 07N58W. Aside from the convection discussed in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-19N between 33W- 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 30N88W to 26N88W to 22N87W. Scattered moderate convection prevails N of 24N between 85W-89W. Another area of scattered moderate convection prevails over the NW gulf mainly N of 26N and W of 94W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds over the western half of the basin, while moderate to fresh winds are noted E of 90W due to the pressure gradient enhanced by the proximity of T.S. Ida. Tropical Storm Ida near 20.0N 81.4W 1001 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Ida will move to 21.5N 82.9W this afternoon, 23.4N 84.9W Sat morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 25.3N 86.9W Sat afternoon, 27.1N 88.8W Sun morning, 28.7N 90.2W Sun afternoon, and inland to 30.1N 91.1W Mon morning. Ida will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland over 33.0N 90.5W by early Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the sections above for details on T.S. Ida and the tropical waves moving across the basin. The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is along 10N and W of 76W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and south of the monsoon trough. Tropical Storm Ida near 20.0N 81.4W 1001 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Ida will move to 21.5N 82.9W this afternoon, 23.4N 84.9W Sat morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 25.3N 86.9W Sat afternoon, 27.1N 88.8W Sun morning, 28.7N 90.2W Sun afternoon, and inland to 30.1N 91.1W Mon morning. Ida will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland over 33.0N 90.5W by early Tue. Moderate to fresh winds are expected elsewhere through the forecast period, except for locally strong winds in the south- central Caribbean through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Special Features developing across the basin and the tropical waves present. Upper level anticyclonic outflow, that is curving away from the NW Caribbean Sea Tropical Storm IDA, is reaching Florida near 29N, and curving toward 29N70W in the Atlantic Ocean. Scattered showers prevail over the west Atlantic mainly west of 75W. To the east, a surface trough is along 29N65W to 23N70W. Scattered showers are noted along and within 100 nm W of the trough. Another trough extends from 30N27W to 24N31W. No significant convection is noted at this time with this trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin with fair weather. High pressure centered N of 30N will dominate the SW N Atlantic through Mon supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds. Fresh winds are expected to pulse N of Hispaniola during the evening hours through Sat night. $$ ERA