000 AXNT20 KNHC 262200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Aug 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Ida is centered near 18.0N 79.8W at 26/2100 UTC or 90 nm WSW of Negril Jamaica moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 11 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 180 nm in the NE semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated convection is elsewhere from 13N to 23N between 73W and 83W. The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Ida is forecast to reach hurricane intensity this weekend over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Additional strengthening is likely over the Gulf of Mexico and the system could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. Heavy rainfall is expected to produce significant flooding across the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, the Isle of Youth and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4 for more details. Please refer to the NHC High Seas Forecasts at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for marine impacts. An elongated area of low pressure located over the central Atlantic about 600 miles east of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend. The system is expected to move slowly eastward during the next day or two, but a faster northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Sunday. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to turn northward early next week. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 22W S of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated showers are seen near where the wave intersects the monsoon trough. Please see the Special Features section above for details on the tropical wave along 42W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W from 07N-19N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are seen south of 10N near the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W S of 16N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is seen near where the wave intersects the east Pacific monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 14N35W to 08N45W to 07N52W. The ITCZ continues from 07N52W to 09N58W. Aside from convection noted in the sections above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 12N between 15W and 20W, from 05N to 16N between 31W and 38W, and from 05N to 10N between 46W and 56W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough over the northwest Gulf of Mexico is producing numerous moderate and isolated strong convection from 25N to 30N between 90W and 96.5W. Another surface trough is located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 23N and 29N between 83W and 86W. Moderate winds are noted over the eastern Gulf, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the eastern Gulf and 1-3 ft over the western Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ida near 18.0N 79.6W 1006 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Ida will reach near 19.7N 81.0W Fri morning, move inland to 21.7N 82.8W Fri afternoon, 23.7N 84.8W Sat morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 25.6N 87.0W Sat afternoon, 27.2N 88.8W Sun morning, and 28.9N 90.4W Sun afternoon. Ida will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland near 31.9N 91.4W Mon afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Ida. The eastern Caribbean east of 70W is free of any significant precipitation areas. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail over the area, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Outside of Ida, conditions are quiet west of 83W for the moment, except for the Yucatan Channel and just east of the Yucatan Peninsula, where moderate NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ida will reach near 18N80W this evening, move near or over western Cuba near 22.5N 84W Fri evening, then strengthen to a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico near 24N86W Sat morning. Tropical storm force winds and seas over 12 ft will exit the northwest Caribbean by Sat morning. Moderate to fresh winds are expected elsewhere through the forecast period, except for locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the special features section above for details on a trough of low pressure over the central Atlantic near 31N55W, which has the potential for tropical cyclone development. An upper-level trough over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico is inducing upper-level diffluence to the east of northern Florida. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted east of northern Florida from 28N to 31N between 74W and 80W. Moderate to fresh east winds are over the waters west of 70W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in this area. Farther south, scattered showers extend off the north coast of eastern Cuba south of 24N between 73W and 80W, associated with the outermost rain bands of T.S. Ida. Gentle to moderate wind speeds prevail from 20N-26N between 50W- 70W, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. In the northeast portion of the area, a cold front extends from 31N25W to a 1014 mb low pressure near 28N30W. A surface trough extends from the low SW to 23N35W. Fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are west of the low and surface trough. Fresh to strong trades are noted in the area from 12N to 20N between 37W and 50W, where seas are 7 to 10 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure located just N of the forecast region will dominate the SW N Atlantic through Mon supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse N of Hispaniola during the evening hours through Sat night. Otherwise, a low pressure is forecast to develop E of the Bahamas by Tue. $$ AL