442 AXNT20 KNHC 230602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Aug 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Henri is inland, at 23/0300 UTC. HENRI is near 41.9N 73.2W, or about 140 km/75 nm to the NNE of New York City, and about 45 km/24 nm to the WNW of Hartford in Connecticut. HENRI is moving WNW, or 290 degrees, 07 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Henri is expected to slow down more, and possibly stall near the border of Connecticut and New York tonight, to move across Massachusetts on Monday afternoon and Monday night, and into the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W, from 19N southward. The wave is moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is inland in Africa from 11N in Guinea to 14N in Senegal between 12W and 15W, and from 06N to 08N between 20W and 22W in the Atlantic Ocean. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 120 nm on either side of the line 11N17W 06N22W 03N28W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W, from 21N southward. The wave is moving W 10 to 15 knots. This wave was re-positioned based on the long-loop satellite imagery. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 13N along the tropical wave. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 130 nm to 250 nm of the 1011 mb low pressure center in the NW quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 460 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 05N to 18N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W, from 20N southward. The wave is moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is related to the monsoon trough. A surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean along 57W/58W from 07N to 14N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W, from 20N southward. The wave is moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N to 15N between 53W and 67W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W, from 20N southward. The wave is moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia beyond 11N76W in southern Nicaragua. Precipitation: numerous strong is in Colombia and NW Venezuela from 07N to 10N between 71W at the SW part of Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela and 74W in Colombia. Strong rainshowers in individual clusters extend northwestward, away from the monsoon trough where it crosses 80W, into NE Nicaragua. Strong rainshowers are in Panama from 80W westward, and in the coastal waters near 07N81W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W, from 21N at the eastern edge of the Yucatan Peninsula, southward, through Honduras, into the E Pacific Ocean. The wave is moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 360 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from the monsoon trough near 12N to 17N in Belize, and in the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 15N northward between the 79W tropical wave and the 87W/88W tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 17N16W, to the 1011 mb low pressure center that is along the 33W tropical wave, to 09N42W and 08N52W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The upper level cyclonic circulation center, that was in the east central Yucatan Peninsula 24 hours ago, now is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, near 20N95W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is inland, in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico between 94W and 97W. Broken to overcast convective debris clouds cover the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 24N southward from 88W westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the remainder of the area. The surface pressure pattern is currently weak. A broad surface ridge extends from 27N82W in western Florida to the north central Gulf of Mexico, toward the upper Texas Gulf coast. High pressure will dominate the basin into midweek. Fresh to possibly locally strong winds will pulse to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and again on Tuesday night and on Wednesday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Three tropical waves are in the Caribbean Sea. One is along 62W/63W. The second tropical wave is along 79W. The third tropical wave is along 87W/88W. All the information about each tropical wave and its accompanying precipitation is in the Tropical Waves section. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 17N southward between 67W and the 79W tropical wave. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Fresh to strong trade winds will dominate most of the east and the central Caribbean Sea through midweek, building the sea heights to 8 to 10 feet. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected also in the Windward Passage through Tuesday night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 29N northward between 74W in the Atlantic Ocean and the border of Mississippi and Alabama. An inland surface trough passes through the eastern sections of North Carolina, to central Georgia, to southern Alabama and southern Mississippi. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 29N to 33N between 74W and 80W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is inland, from 30N in the Florida Panhandle to 32N between SE Georgia to the border of SW Alabama and SE Mississippi. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a cyclonic circulation center, is along the coast of Morocco from 28N to 31N between the coast and 15W. An upper level trough is along 31N35W, to a 23N46W cyclonic circulation center, to a 24N68W cyclonic circulation center, to the Windward Passage. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 13N to 31N between 35W and 56W. A surface frontal boundary is to the north of the area. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the north of the line 31N40W 26N50W 24N60W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 24N northward between 53W and 80W. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 30N62W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 27N northward from 32W eastward. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 34N23W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail east and across the Bahamas through Monday, except for fresh to locally strong winds at night to the north of Hispaniola, and in the approaches to the Windward Passage. A tropical wave will move across the area by mid-week, with fresh to possibly locally strong winds ahead of it. $$ mt