853 AXNT20 KNHC 220915 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Aug 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Henri is centered near 40.1N 71.2W at 22/0900 UTC or 70 nm SSE of Montauk Point New York moving N at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are currently 34 ft well north of the discussion area. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center, along with a nearby band of similar convection elsewhere from 39N to 41N between 71W and 76W. Henri will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm over New England this afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 32W from 22N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 26W and 34W. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 43W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 35W and 43W. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 55W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 44W and 56W, with similar convection noted from 14N to 16N between 57W and 62W. A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 75W from 20N southward across the approach to the Windward Passage to north central Colombia, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No deep convection is noted over water, however scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted near the tropical wave axis over portions of northern Colombia and extreme northwestern Venezuela. A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 83W, from 20N southward across Central America near the Costa Rica-Panama border and into the far eastern Pacific Ocean, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 16N to 20N between 83W and 90W, with scattered moderate convection noted from 17N to 19N between 78W and 81W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W to 12N35W to 11N44W. The ITCZ continues from 11N44W to 10N53W, then resumes near 01N56W to near Trinidad. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 13N between the coast of Africa and 21W, associated with the next tropical wave. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico with a 1017 mb surface high located near 29N92W. Light to gentle winds are in the northeast and north central Gulf, with moderate to locally fresh easterly flow elsewhere. Seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range in the northeastern half of the basin, with seas of 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin for the next several days. Fresh to strong winds will pulse west of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Other than the tropical waves discussed in the section above, high pressure prevails northeast of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds cover most of the basin, locally strong near the northern coast of Colombia, and light to moderate in the southwest Caribbean. Seas are mainly in the 4 to 7 ft range, locally to 8 ft near the coast of colombia, and 2 to 4 ft in the southwest Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will dominate into next week. Pulses of strong winds are possible offshore Colombia early today and will develop over much of the rest of the central Caribbean later today. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed from the coast of the Carolinas to near the Georgia-Florida boarder. Scattered thunderstorms are noted within 150 nm east-southeast of this feature. The Bermuda- Azores high stretches across the waters from 27N to 30N. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds dominate this area east of 60W, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. A belt of moderate to fresh trades dominates from 12N to 24N along with seas of 5 to 7 ft, with gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail east and across the Bahamas through Mon, except for fresh to possibly locally strong winds at night north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage. A tropical wave will move across the area by mid-week with fresh to strong winds ahead of it. $$ Lewitsky