000 AXNT20 KNHC 220600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Aug 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Henri, at 22/0600 UTC, is near 39.3N 71.0W, or about 215 km to the SSE of Montauk Point in New York, and about 280 km to the S of Providence in Rhode Island. Henri is moving N, or 355 degrees, 18 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 45 nm to 150 nm of the center in the N quadrant. Henri is expected to make landfall on Long Island or in southern New England on Sunday. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details. The remnants of GRACE are a 1005 mb low pressure center, that is inland in Mexico, near 19.5N100W. Precipitation: numerous strong is from 17N to 19N between 96W and 98W. Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures, and weakening but persisting widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W, from 22N southward. The wave is moving W 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 440 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 05N to 16N, and within 200 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 05N to 17N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W, from 20N southward. The wave is moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: nearby precipitation also is related to the monsoon trough and the ITCZ. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 34W and the 53W/54W tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W, from 20N southward. The wave is moving W about 15 kt. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 430 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 09N to 17N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W, from 20N southward across Haiti, to NW Venezuela, and to Colombia. The wave is moving westward about 15 knots. The eastward extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from 75W westward beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: numerous strong is from 08N to 10N between 73W and 75W, and from 07N to 09N between 75W and 78W at the border of Colombia and Panama. Scattered strong is at the western edge of Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 20N southward across central Panama into the E Pacific Ocean. The wave is moving W 10 to 15 knots. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the east central Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the waters from 15N northward from Jamaica westward, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Similar precipitation is from 14N to 17N between 84W and 90W, in the coastal plains Honduras and Belize, and in interior and coastal sections of Guatemala. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W, to 14N27W, to 12N37W, and to 12N44W. The ITCZ continues from 12N44W, to 10N61W near Trinidad. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 07N to 12N between 12W and 16W in interior and coastal sections of Africa. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 04N to 07N between 10W and 20W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 34W and the 53W/54W tropical wave. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 28N88W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area, to the north of the line that extends from Lake Okeechobee in Florida, to the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico along 21N/22N. High pressure will dominate the basin for the next several days. Fresh to strong winds will pulse to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the east central Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the waters from 15N northward from Jamaica westward, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Similar precipitation is from 14N to 17N between 84W and 90W, in the coastal plains Honduras and Belize, and in interior and coastal sections of Guatemala. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 17N southward from 70W westward, in trade wind flow. Moderate to fresh trade winds will dominate into next week. Pulses of strong winds are possible offshore Colombia early today, and will develop in much of the rest of the central Caribbean Sea later today. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The base of an upper level trough reaches 30N76W, about 275 nm to the east of NE Florida. An inland surface trough passes through South Carolina to south central Georgia. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 30N to 32N between 77W and 81W. An upper level trough passes through 31N30W, to an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is near 24N46W, to a second upper level cyclonic center that is near 25N66W, to the Mona Passage. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 30W and 55W. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 31N60W. A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 35N20W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 22N northward, away from the northernmost points of the tropical waves, from 80W eastward. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail east and across the Bahamas through Monday, except for fresh to possibly locally strong winds at night, to the north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage. A tropical wave will move across the area by mid-week, with fresh to strong winds ahead of it. $$ MT