000 AXNT20 KNHC 161756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Aug 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fred is centered near 29.2N 85.7W at 16/1500 UTC or 48 nm southwest of Apalachicola, Florida moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 26N to 29N between 82W to 87W. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 100 nm in the E semicircle. Buoy 42039 reached 13 ft around 1200 UTC, just north of Fred's center. Seas are forecast to reach 10-18 ft in the NE Gulf of Mexico. Fred's forward speed will increase slightly today. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should make landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early this evening, and move over western Georgia on Tuesday. Some slight strengthening is forecast before landfall. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Grace is centered near 17.7N 71.4W at 16/1500 UTC or 74 nm southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti, moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 21N between 66W and 72W, including the Mona Passage. A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will pass near the southern coast of Hispaniola today and tonight, and then pass between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Eight is was centered near 31.3N 62.8W or about 95 nm E of Bermuda. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The depression is moving SSW at 4 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the southern semicircle from 30N to 33N between 61W and 64W. A slow clockwise turn toward the west is anticipated during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move well to the south of Bermuda. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 33W from 21N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-16N between 27W-30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 49W from 19N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W from south of 20N to northern Panama. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 11N between 80W-83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 11N30W to 08N44W. The ITCZ is analyzed 08N52W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the monsoon trough from 04N to 11N E of 27W to the coast of Africa, and near the ITCZ from 07N to 09N between 52W to 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Fred. Moderate south to southeast winds were detected over the SE Gulf by the latest ASCAT pass, while light to gentle easterly winds prevail across the western Gulf. Seas are 2-3 ft in the western Gulf and increasing to 4 to 8 ft towards the E and NE associated to from Tropical Storm Fred. The diurnal trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 24N89W to 19N94W. Scattered showers are possible near the trough axis. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fred near 29.2N 85.7W 993 mb at 11 AM EDT moving N at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Fred will move inland to 30.5N 85.5W this evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 32.6N 85.0W Tue morning. Tropical Depression Grace over the Caribbean Sea is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm and move into the SE Gulf Wed night, then track in a westward direction toward Mexico through Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Grace. Outside of the wind field of Tropical Depression Grace, ASCAT data showed moderate to fresh winds in the eastern Caribbean and light to gentle trades west of 70W, pulsing to moderate in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 2-3 ft over the central and eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Grace near 17.7N 71.4W 1007 mb at 11 AM EDT moving W at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Grace will move over Haiti this evening, strengthen to a tropical storm south of SE Cuba Tue morning, south of central Cuba Wed morning, near the Yucatan Channel Wed evening, and near the north coast of Yucatan Thu morning. Elsewhere the trades will be fresh to strong over the S central Caribbean Tue and Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Eight. Surface ridging and a weak pressure gradient prevails across the tropical Atlantic. Mainly moderate trades are pulsing to fresh winds from 24N to the coast of Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are over the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos. Light winds are north of 24N between 31W and 64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 26N and west of 74W. Gentle to moderate trades are south of 24N in the remainder of the basin, except moderate N to NW winds noted North of 18N to the Canary Islands. Seas are 4-6 ft to the far east and near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic south of 24N and east of 68W. Seas are 3-4 ft near the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 65W, Tropical Depression Grace near 17.7N 71.4W 1007 mb at 11 AM EDT moving W at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Grace will move over Haiti this evening, strengthen to a tropical storm south of SE Cuba Tue morning, south of central Cuba Wed morning, near the Yucatan Channel Wed evening, and near the north coast of Yucatan Thu morning. Tropical Depression Eight near 31.3N 62.8W 1012 mb at 11 AM EDT moving S at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eight will strengthen to a tropical storm near 30.6N 63.1W this evening, move to 30.2N 63.8W Tue morning, 29.9N 64.7W Tue evening, 29.8N 66.0W Wed morning, 29.9N 67.4W Wed evening, and 30.1N 68.7W Thu morning. Eight will change little in intensity as it moves to 31.0N 70.1W early Fri. Otherwise, high pressure will persist across the area through the period. $$ Torres