000 AXNT20 KNHC 160701 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Aug 16 2021 Updated to include information from the 0600 UTC Intermediate Advisories for FRED, GRACE, and EIGHT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fred is centered near 27.5N 86.0W at 16/0600 UTC or 150 nm S of Panama City, Florida moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate convection prevails from 26N to 30N between 83W and 86W. Scattered moderate convection is over and offshore of the SW Florida Peninsula from 25N to 27N between 81W and 83W. Seas are 7-12 ft in the NE Gulf of Mexico. A gradual increase in forward speed is expected this morning and a turn toward the north is expected this afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico today, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early evening. Some slight strengthening is forecast before landfall. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Grace is centered near 17.3N 69.6W at 16/0600 UTC or 80 nm SE of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 19N between 66W and 72W, including the Mona Passage. A general westward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola later today, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or just south of west-central Cuba on Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. At 16/0600 UTC, recently formed Tropical Depression Eight was centered at 32.6N 62.8W or 115 nm ENE of Bermuda. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The depression is moving S at 6 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 30N to 33N between 61W and 64W. A slow clockwise turn toward the west is anticipated during the next couple of days, followed by a continued westward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move east and south of Bermuda during the next few days. Slow strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 30W from 22N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevail from 05N-08N between 27W-30W. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 45W from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is noted at this time. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is noted with the wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Senegal and Mauritania near 16N16W to 12N23W to 06N44W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 07N47W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is near the monsoon trough from 05N to 10N between 20W and 27W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm north and south of the remaining sections of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Fred. Moderate S winds were detected by scatterometer in the SE Gulf. Light to gentle NE to E winds prevail across the basin west of 88W. At 0300 UTC, an outflow boundary was located just off the Texas coast in the NW Gulf. Scattered showers are located near this outflow boundary. Seas are 5-7 ft in the central Gulf in NE to E swell from Tropical Storm Fred. 3-5 ft seas are analyzed in the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, and in the north-central Gulf west of 90W. Seas are 3 ft or less in the western Gulf. For the forecast, Fred will move to 28.6N 86.2W Mon morning with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, to near 30.2N 86.1W Mon evening and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 32.3N 85.7W Tue morning. Fred will dissipate inland Wed morning. Tropical Depression Grace over the northeastern Caribbean Sea is forecast to move near or over west-central Cuba on Wed and reach the far southeastern Gulf Wed night. Grace is forecast to intensify to a tropical storm as it moves across the central gulf Thu through Fri and western Gulf Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Grace. The latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades west of 70W, pulsing to moderate in the Gulf of Honduras. East of 70W and outside of the wind field of Tropical Depression Grace, E to SE winds are mainly moderate. Seas are 3-5 ft east of 72W and less than 3 ft west of 72W. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Grace will maintain intensity as it moves to near 17.7N 70.3W Mon morning, to near 18.7N 72.8W Mon evening, to near 19.5N 75.3W Tue morning, to near 20.4N 78.1W Tue evening, to near 21.2N 81.0W Wed morning, and inland western Cuba near 22.2N 84.0W Wed evening. Grace will strengthen to a tropical storm over the Gulf of Mexico near 23.5N 89.0W late Thu. Trade winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds over the central Caribbean beginning on Wed and through late Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Eight. Surface ridging and a weak pressure gradient prevails across the tropical Atlantic. Mainly moderate trades are pulsing to fresh near the coast of Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are impacting the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos. Light winds are north of 24N between 31W and 64W. Gentle to moderate trades are south of 24N in the remainder of the basin. Seas are 5-7 ft near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic south of 22N and east of 65W. Seas are 3-5 ft near the Lesser Antilles, and 3-6 ft in the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 65W, Tropical Depression Eight will move to near 32.4N 62.8W Mon morning, then strengthen to a tropical storm near 31.5N 63.3W Mon evening with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. It will move to near 31.1N 64.0W Tue morning, to near 31.0N 64.9W Tue evening, to near near 31.0N 66.1W Wed morning with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts to 60 kt, and to near 31.2N 67.4W Wed evening. Tropical Storm Eight will change little in intensity as it moves to just north of the area near 32.0N 68.5W late Thu. Otherwise, high pressure will persist across the area through the period. $$ Mahoney