000 AXNT20 KNHC 151800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Aug 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... FRED has formed as a Tropical Storm, again, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The center of Tropical Storm Fred, at 15/1800 UTC, is near 26.2N 85.2W. This position is about 330 km/180 nm to the SW of Tampa in Florida, and about 515 km/278 nm to the SSE of Pensacola in Florida. FRED is moving NNW, or 330 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, and make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle on Monday afternoon or on Monday night. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 160 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Grace, at 15/1800 UTC, is near is over the eastern Caribbean Sea near 17.3N 66.8W. This position is about 90 km/48 nm to the SSW of San Juan in Puerto Rico, and about 355 km/192 nm to the ESE of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. GRACE is moving toward the WNW, or 285 degrees, 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. GRACE remains disorganized, while moving just to the south of Puerto Rico. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 300 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. A small but well-defined 1017 mb low pressure center is about 175 miles to the northeast of Bermuda. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward from 46W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 26N northward between 46W and 65W. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some development of this low pressure center during the next couple of days. It is possible that a tropical depression may form, while the center moves slowly to the south or south-southwest about 5 mph, near or to the east of Bermuda. The upper level winds are forecast to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation, by Tuesday. Please, monitor the progress of this weather feature, during the next few days, if you are in Bermuda. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W, from 19N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: most if not all the nearby precipitation is more related to the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: most if not all of the nearby precipitation is more related to the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 25N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 360 nm to the east of the northernmost parts of the tropical wave, from 24N to 27N between 67W and 74W. Scattered strong is in the SW part of the Caribbean Sea from 10N to 13N between 76W and 79W. Isolated moderate is from 13N to 18N between 70W and 77W. A tropical wave is inland, from the Yucatan Peninsula southward, along 90W/91W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N southward from 88W in the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W, to 13N20W, to 08N27W, to 08N37W. The ITCZ continues from 08N37W, to 08N42W, and to 06N52W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 200 nm to the north of the monsoon trough, and within 240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, from the 26W/27W tropical wave eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 60 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, between the 26W/27W tropical wave and the 42W/43W tropical wave. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between the 42W/43W tropical wave and 54W, and elsewhere from 10N southward between 55W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The center of Tropical Storm FRED is in the Gulf of Mexico, near 26.2N 85.2W. This position is about 330 km/180 nm to the SW of Tampa in Florida, and about 515 km/278 nm to the SSE of Pensacola in Florida. FRED is moving NNW, or 330 degrees, 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 160 nm of the center in the E semicircle. A tropical wave is inland, from the Yucatan Peninsula southward, along 90W/91W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Weak upper level cyclonic wind flow is near the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N southward from 88W in the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, with more isolated moderate to locally strong precipitation in that area. Tropical Storm Fred was near 26.1N 84.9W 1008 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Fred will move to 27.4N 85.8W this evening, 28.9N 86.5W Mon morning, inland to 30.5N 86.5W Mon evening. Fred is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression near 32.5N 86.4W Tue morning, inland to 34.7N 85.7W Tue evening, and dissipate Wed morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The easternmost part of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough passes through Panama near 07N81W, just to the north of the border of Colombia and Panama, to 10N74W in Colombia. Precipitation: scattered strong is in the SW part of the Caribbean Sea from 10N to 13N between 76W and 79W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 13N southward from the 74W/75W tropical wave westward. An Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 25N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: Scattered strong is in the SW part of the Caribbean Sea from 10N to 13N between 76W and 79W. Isolated moderate is from 13N to 18N between 70W and 77W. Tropical Storm Grace was near 17.2N 66.0W 1010 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Grace will move to 17.8N 67.8W this evening, inland to 18.5N 69.7W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 19.3N 71.7W Mon evening, strengthen to a tropical storm near 20.3N 74.0W Tue morning, 21.3N 76.6W Tue evening, and inland to 22.3N 79.4W Wed morning. Grace will change little in intensity as it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico near 23.9N 82.5W late Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 25N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 360 nm to the east of the northernmost parts of the tropical wave, from 24N to 27N between 67W and 74W. A small but well-defined 1017 mb low pressure center is about 175 miles to the northeast of Bermuda. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward from 46W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 26N northward between 46W and 65W. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Tropical Storm Grace near 17.2N 66.0W 1010 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Grace will move to 17.8N 67.8W this evening, inland to 18.5N 69.7W Mon morning. Grace is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression near 19.3N 71.7W Mon evening, then strengthen to a tropical storm near 20.3N 74.0W Tue morning, 21.3N 76.6W Tue evening, and inland to 22.3N 79.4W Wed morning. Grace will change little in intensity as it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Wed night. Otherwise, high pressure will persist across the area through the period. $$ mt