000 AXNT20 KNHC 120550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Aug 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Fred near 19.5N 72.2W 1009 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted about 160 nm in the SE and SW quadrant, while scattered moderate convection about 200 nm in the NE quadrant. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be over northern Haiti overnight, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas today, and move near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba Tonight and Friday. Little, if any change, in strength is expected overnight. Slow re-intensification is forecast to begin by Thursday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 16N with axis near 36W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted west of the wave axis from 08N to 15N between 37W and 42W. Environmental conditions are expected to become gradually conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while moving generally westward across the tropical Atlantic. This system could reach portions of the Leeward Islands by late Saturday. A tropical wave extends from 21N with axis near 51W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 02N to 13N between 46W and 56W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean just to the south of Fred with axis near 72W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is supporting showers and thunderstorms over Venezuela and Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 12N29W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-11N and E of 17W, from 10N to 11N between 20W-26W, and from 03N-08N between 44W-50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough supports heavy showers and isolated tstms over the Louisiana adjacent waters while a low aloft supports similar convection over the Bay of Campeche, including the Yucatan peninsula adjacent waters. Otherwise, the SW extension of the Atlantic ridge covers the basin and continue to support gentle to moderate E to SE flow, except NE flow off the Yucatan peninsula. Seas ranged from 2 to 3 ft across the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche overnight and Thu night in association with a trough that forms late in the day. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will persist through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from Fred, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the SW basin being supported by the NE Pacific monsoon trough, and in the far western Caribbean over the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades cover the eastern and central portion of the basin while gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas ranged from 3 to 4 ft in the eastern and central Caribbean, 4 to 5 ft in the SW Caribbean and 1 to 3 ft in the far western Caribbean. For the forecast, Fred is expected to remain north of the Caribbean, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas today, and move near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba Tonight and Friday. Fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage will diminish through the morning, except for possibly near the northern entrance as Fred moves moves to the north of the region. Moderate to occasionally fresh winds will persist across most the eastern and central Caribbean as Fred continues to move away from the area and high pressure builds to the north. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas will persist elsewhere. Looking ahead, a fairly strong tropical wave will move into the Windward Islands by Sat night, and into the north central Caribbean by Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Depression Fred is near 19.5N 72.2W 1009 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Please see Special Features section above for more on Tropical Depression Fred. Bermuda-Azores high remains in control of the Basin. A surface trough extends from 22N71W to 30N64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend from 23N to 30N between 65W to 73W. Further east, a second trough is analyzed near 25N40W to 23N53W with a scattered showers noted along the trough axis. Seas ranged between 2 to 4 ft W of 59W, 5 to 6 ft E of 69W, and further east between 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, mostly moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas will persist between Fred and the Bermuda-Azores high farther to the northeast in the north central Atlantic. $$ Torres