000 AXNT20 KNHC 101759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Aug 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is centered near 16.6N 64.8W at 10/1800 UTC or 130 nm SE of Ponce, Puerto Rico moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 200 nm N and 100 nm E, S, and W semicircles. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning this afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late Wednesday. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across the eastern and southern portions of Puerto Rico. For more details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml. Additional products can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 25W from 21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 14N between 25W and 32W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W from 22N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No convection is noted with the wave at this time. The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed from 27N57W to 14N63W to 04N63W in E Venezuela. It is currently moving W at 10-15 kt. In addition to the convection associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, scattered showers are noted nort of 24N within 100 nm west of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed at 1500 UTC along 79W from 21N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean from 17N to 22N between 79W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 12N16W to 12N20W to 13N30W to 10N46W. The ITCZ continues from 10N46W to 08N56W. Aside from convection described above in the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 42W and 55W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging prevails over the Gulf. As of 1500 UTC, a surface trough extends along the coast of Mexico in the W Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 19N to 21N west of 95W. Scattered showers are noted in the central Gulf. Light to gentle E to SE winds prevail over the basin with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche each night through Wed night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge will prevail along 30N Tue through Thu. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six near 16.3N 63.8W 1012 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. This system is expected to move across the Straits of Florida Fri night as a tropical storm, then move into the SE Gulf of Mexico Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, which is currently located in the NE Caribbean. Outside of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, fresh to locally strong trades prevail over the central Caribbean with mainly moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft near the Leeward Islands in the NE Caribbean, 2-4 ft near the Windward Islands in the SE Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the W Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean are expected to diminish by early Wed morning. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight, be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands Thursday. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, which is currently located in the NE Caribbean. High pressure prevails across the tropical Atalntic. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to locally fresh trades from 15N to 25N, with light to gentle trades elsewhere in the discussion waters. Seas are in the 3-5 ft north of 22N and west of 70W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere including over open waters. For the forecast W of 65W, Atlc surface ridge associated with the Bermuda- Azores high will persist with axis N of the area for the next several days. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight, be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands Thursday. This system is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico by late Friday. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. $$ Mahoney