000 AXNT20 KNHC 081750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Aug 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1735 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 mb low pressure system is located well east of the Lesser Antilles, near 12N53W. The disturbance is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms and a recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to strong NE winds north of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable to support some gradual development over the next few days, and this system could become a tropical depression while it moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday, and then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and near Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system, as it could bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of that area. There is a medium chance of development in the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for the latest information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W, south of 20N, and it is moving to the W at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is devoid of any significant convection at this time. Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 49W, south of 21N, and it is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted in association with this wave. A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 65W, south of 21N, and it is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show a sharp curvature in association with this wave, and also fresh to locally strong trade winds from 16N to 19N and between 60W and 66W. Scattered moderate convection is affecting the E Caribbean and Lesser Antilles from 11N to 20N and between 59W and 66W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 15N27W to 11N33W to a 1010 mb low pressure center near 14N43W to a 1009 mb low pressure center near 12N53W to 11N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on either side of the monsoon trough from 07N to 13N between 32W and 37W, and from 09N to 15N between 43W and 58W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The Gulf of Mexico remains in the SW flank of the subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores. This keeps the region in an environment of a relatively weak pressure gradient. A few showers are affecting an area in the W Bay of Campeche from 20N to 24N and between 94W and 97W, while fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail in the rest of the basin. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE-S breezes are found in the Bay of Campeche and W Gulf of Mexico, with 3-4 ft seas. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Tue night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge along 26N-27N will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the coasts of SE Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. This is in association with the East Pacific monsoon trough that crosses into the Caribbean Sea through S Costa Rica and W Panama. The rest of the basin enjoys tranquil weather conditions. Recent scatterometer satellite data show fresh to locally strong winds are over the south-central Caribbean, especially within 100 nm of the coast of NW Colombia. Seas in the area are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the north-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, while light to gentle trades prevail in the NW and SE Caribbean. Seas of 4-6 ft are prevalent in the north- central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, while 2-4 ft seas are found elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through tonight, then diminish significantly across most of the basin through Mon. Fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage during the evening hours tonight. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere through Tue before fresh winds return to the south-central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive 1030 mb Azores high pressure system is the dominant weather feature in the tropical Atlantic, allowing for fairly tranquil weather conditions outside of the deep tropics. An exception to the tranquil weather can be found off the NE Florida coast and N of the NW Bahamas due to a trough that extends from 33N77W to 27N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of this trough. Farther east, a weak surface trough extends from 30N69W to 26N71W and another surface trough extends from 31N58W to 25N62W. Both systems are only producing shallow showers, mainly east of the trough axis. Also, both troughs were captured by the recent scatterometer pass, showing broad curvature with gentle winds. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are found W of 50W and N of 20N, and seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds prevail E of 50W and N of 20N, and seas of 6-8 ft. However, fresh to strong N winds and seas of 7-9 ft can be found off the coast of Morocco. Over the deep tropics south of 20N, the monsoon trough extends across the waters from the coast of Africa to near 55W. Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate SW to W monsoon flow south of the monsoon trough. Three low pressure centers are embedded within the monsoon trough. These lows are being monitored for potential tropical cyclone development. Please, see the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage tonight. Elsewhere, the Atlc surface ridge associated with the Bermuda- Azores high will persist with axis well N of the area for the next several days. A tropical wave with active weather is expected to enter the SE waters Mon night, move across the NE Carib and adjacent Atlc waters Tue night through Wed, and reach the SE Bahamas early Thu. $$ DELGADO