000 AXNT20 KNHC 080549 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Aug 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, just to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 14N. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 250 nm on either side of the tropical wave. Strong upper level winds and cooler water temperatures are expected to prevent significant development of this system, while it moves toward the west or west-northwest about 10 mph during the next few days. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds still are possible in parts of the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W, from 21N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is more related to the monsoon trough, and to the 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 14N41W. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for gradual development of the 1011 mb low pressure center, that is near 14N41W, during the next several days. It is possible that this system may become a tropical depression by the middle of the upcoming week. The system is forecast to move slowly toward the west-southwest or west, during the next couple of days, and then move a little faster toward the west-northwest by the middle of the upcoming week. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 12N52W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 09N to 13N between 50W and 55W. Some gradual development of this system is possible, while it moves west-northwestward 10 to 15 mph, reaching parts of the Lesser Antilles late on Monday, and then moving across the eastern Caribbean Sea and the Greater Antilles through the middle of the upcoming week. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is mostly in the Atlantic Ocean, within 45 nm on either side of the line 12N57W 13N58W 15N60W 17N61W 19N62W. Isolated moderate rainshowers also are within 430 nm to the west of the tropical wave. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, reaching portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday and then moving across the eastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles through the middle of this week. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of western Mauritania near 21N17W, to the 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 14N25W, to 12N31W, to a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 14N41W, to 13N47W, to 09N57W. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 220 nm of the 14N41W low pressure center in the W semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N to 10N between 44W and 49W, and within 75 nm on either side of the line 06N39W 09N34W 10N31W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 16N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow surround Florida. One such area reaches the Straits of Florida, from the Atlantic Ocean 32N54W cyclonic circulation center. A second area of upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A third area of upper level cyclonic wind flow covers Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas, and it is associated with a stationary front that passes through the Carolinas to Georgia and Alabama. Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures, dissipating precipitation, and convective debris clouds cover Florida and its coastal waters. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 29N to 32N between 78W and 81W in the Atlantic Ocean, within 100 nm to the ENE of NE Florida near 30N81W. A NW-to-SE oriented upper level trough is in central Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A separate area of upper level cyclonic wind flow covers much of the rest of the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. This area is related to the upper level cyclonic wind flow that is covering the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula, into the Bay of Campeche, every night through Tuesday night, in association with a diurnal trough. A weak surface ridge along 26N/27N will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days, producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the SE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula/Belize. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 13N northward from 74W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the area that is from 13N in the Caribbean Sea to 24N in the SE Gulf of Mexico from 74W westward, within the confines of the broad upper level cyclonic wind flow. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is mostly in the Atlantic Ocean, within 45 nm on either side of the line 12N57W 13N58W 15N60W 17N61W 19N62W. Isolated moderate rainshowers also are within 430 nm to the west of the tropical wave. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south central Caribbean Sea through tonight, then diminish significantly across most of the basin from Sunday through Monday. Expect fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras, through the nighttime hours. Fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage during the evening hours this weekend. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere through Thursday, before fresh winds return to the south central Caribbean Sea. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 32N54W cyclonic circulation center, to 26N64W, to 23N75W, to the Straits of Florida. One surface trough is along 58W/60W from 21N to 32N. A second surface trough is along 67W/68W from 25N to 30N. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 25N northward between 50W and 75W. Isolated moderate also is between the Bahamas and Cuba, and between the Bahamas and Florida Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 23N northward from 55W eastward. A 1030 mb high pressure center is near 36N44W. Fresh winds will pulse to the north of Hispaniola, including in the approaches to the Windward Passage, at night through the weekend. The Atlantic Ocean surface ridge, that is associated with the Bermuda-to-Azores high, will persist well to the N of the area for the next several days. A tropical wave with active weather is expected to enter the SE waters on Monday night, to move across the NE Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean waters on Tuesday night, and reach the SE Bahamas late on Wednesday. $$ mt/al