000 AXNT20 KNHC 072359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Aug 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 06N to 19N with axis near 25W, moving WNW at 10-15 kt. A 1012 mb low near 13N25W is associated with it. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 17N between 25W and 33W. Some gradual development is possible during the next day or so but strong upper-level winds and cooler waters are likely to prevent significant development after that time. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands tonight and Sunday. Formation chance within the next 5 days is low. A tropical wave extends from 06N to 20N with axis near 42W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 10N to 15N between 40W and 46W. A tropical wave extends from 06N to 19N with axis near 59W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstms are over the Leeward Islands adjacent waters. Development of this system is not anticipated as it moves WNW across the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea during the early to middle part of next week. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean crossing Central America. The wave extends S of 17N with axis near 82W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are over the Panama, Costa Rica and SE Nicaragua offshore waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 20N17W to a low pressure near 13N25W to another low pressure near 13N40W to 10N55W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 08N to 14N between 48W and 55W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level low over the NW Caribbean supports scattered showers and tstms over the far SE portion of the basin, the Yucatan Channel and the Bay of Campeche. A col of low pressure over the NE gulf support similiar shower activity in that region. Fair weather conditions are elsewhere with mainly light to gentle variable winds, except for the far western gulf W of 94W where moderate SE winds are noted. Moderate to fresh NE winds are also along the Yucatan peninsula adjacent waters associated with a trough moving off the peninsula. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Tue night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge along 26N-27N will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low over the NW Caribbean is supporting showers and isolated tstms across portions of Cuba, Jamaica adjacent waters, Yucatan channel and Gulf of Honduras. Over the SW, basin the passage of a tropical wave that also crosses Central America, supports similar shower activity over the Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters. A tropical wave starting to move across the Lesser Antilles generates showers and tstms across the Leeward Islands. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds are across the eastern and central basin being supported by the extension of the Azores high into the northern Caribbean. This high pressure supports fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south- central Caribbean through tonight, then diminish significantly across most of the basin Sun through Mon. Expect fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras through the nighttime hours. Fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage during the evening hours this weekend. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere through Thu before fresh winds return to the south- central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are in the east and central Atlc S of 20N. See the tropical waves section for further details. The remainder basin is under the influence of the Azores high and its ridge extension, which supports mainly fair weather conditions across the area N of 20N. Fresh winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, at night through the weekend. Elsewhere, the Atlc surface ridge associated with the Bermuda- Azores high will persist with axis well N of the area for the next several days. A tropical wave with active weather is expected to enter the SE waters Mon night, move across the NE Carib and adjacent Atlc waters Tue night, and reach the SE Bahamas late Wed. $$ Ramos