000 AXNT20 KNHC 071733 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Aug 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W, south of 18N, and it is moving to the W at 10 to 15 kt. A 1012 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 12N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 15N and between 22W and 32W. A second Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W, south of 22N, and it is moving W at around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted in association with this wave. A third Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W, south of 21N and it is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show a broad curvature in association with this wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 18N and between 55W and 60W. A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 82W, south of 17N and it is moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over the SW Caribbean Sea, within 150 nm of the coasts of NW Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and SE Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the cost of N Mauritania near 21N17W to a low pressure system near 12N25W to another low pressure system near 13N39W to 08N55W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the monsoon trough from 06N to 14N and between 38W and 57W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The influence of the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends to the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in a weak pressure gradient. As of 1500 UTC, a weak surface trough was noted along 95W from 18N to 23N. The trough is enhancing the formation of scattered moderate convection in the W Bay of Campeche from 19N to 21W and 94W to the coast of Veracruz. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. South of 24N, gentle to moderate E-SE breezes and 2-4 ft seas are prevalent. Light to gentle S-SW breezes and 1-2 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Tue night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge along 26N-27N will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the 1030 mb high pressure system near the Azores and lower pressure over South America maintains an area of fresh to locally strong trades over the south-central Caribbean Sea, as shown by recent scatterometer satellite data. Seas in the region are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are prevalent in the rest of the Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft over the north-central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Except for the convection affecting the SW Caribbean as discussed in the tropical wave section, tranquil weather conditions prevail across the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through tonight, strongest near the coast of NE Colombia and NW Venezuela. Winds will then diminish significantly across most of the basin Sun through Mon. Expect fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras late this afternoon through the nighttime hours. Fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage during the evening hours this weekend. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive 1030 mb high pressure system near the Azores dominates the tropical Atlantic. A surface trough extends from 30N55W to 21N59W. The trough is not producing any significant convection at this time. Another surface trough is analyzed extending from 25N66W to 30N69W, and it is also devoid of deep convection. The broad surface curvatures of these systems are quite evident in the recent scatterometer satellite pass. Tranquil weather conditions prevail north of 20N. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes can be found W of 50N and north of 22N, with seas of 3-5 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes prevail in the rest of the basin, with seas of 5-7 ft. Over the deep tropics south of 20N, the monsoon trough extends across the waters from the coast of Africa to near 55W. Two low pressure centers are embedded within this active monsoon trough, as described in the monsoon trough section. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring these disturbances for potential tropical cyclone development. Please, see the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. For the forecast west of 65W, fresh winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, at night through the weekend. Elsewhere, the Atlc surface ridge associated with the Bermuda-Azores high will persist with axis well N of the area for the next several days. A tropical wave with active weather is expected to enter the SE waters Mon night, move across the NE Carib and adjacent Atlc waters Tue night, and reach the SE Bahamas late Wed. $$ DELGADO