000 AXNT20 KNHC 061744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Aug 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This is associated with the tropical wave interacting with a broader surface trough. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 19W from 17N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 16N and E of 21W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N, where the wave intersects the monsoon trough. The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 51W and 55W near the coast of Suriname and Guyana. The axis of a tropical wave is near 71W, from 16N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. No significant deep convection is noted with the wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 15N to the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama between 79W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to a 1011 mb low pressure Centered near 10.2N23.8W to 13N40W to 08N53W. Aside convection noted within the tropical waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 20W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 35W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through NE Florida, into the north central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection extend towards the SW and continue along the boundary through the northern Gulf coast to NE Texas. Light to gentle winds are across noted in the northern Gulf, with moderate to fresh winds across the southern Gulf. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the far NE Gulf as well as to the west of the Yucatan peninsula. Elsewhere, seas are in the 1-3 ft range. In the forecast, the stationary front will weaken today while lifting northward, and dissipate tonight just north of the area. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Tue night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge along 26N-27N will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds are noted over the south central Caribbean with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 5-6 ft over the north central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the Windward Passage extending SW to northern coast of Honduras. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through Sat night near the coast of NE Colombia and NW Venezuela. Expect fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras from late afternoon through the nighttime hours, each day through Sat night. Fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage during the evening hours this weekend. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure prevails over the subtropical waters north of 20N, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure centered near 36N41W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail across these waters. Over the deep tropics south of 20N, the monsoon trough extends across the waters east of 51W. Moderate to locally fresh NE tradewinds prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate SW to W monsoon flow south of the monsoon trough. Seas over the deep tropics are in the 5-7 ft range. For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, at night through the weekend. Elsewhere, the Atlc surface ridge associated with the Bermuda-Azores high will persist with axis well N of the area for the next several days. $$ Torres