000 AXNT20 KNHC 052110 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Aug 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move off the coasts of Senegal, The Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau later tonight. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde Islands by late Sat or early Sun while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 kt. For more details see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 21W/22W from 18N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 18W and 23W, with scattered moderate convection from 03N to 08N between 23W and 27W. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 34W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 33W and 35W. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 50W from 18N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 50W and 53W. A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 64W from near the Leeward Islands at 17N southward across eastern Venezuela, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across portions of Venezuela. A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 81W/82W from 15N southward across western Panama, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N west of 82W to across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and western Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across the coast of Senegal near 14N17W through 1012 mb low pressure near 13N26W to 1012 mb low pressure near 12N46W to 08N57W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N east of 18W to the coast of Africa, from 13N to 16N between 27W and 31W, from 08N to 14N between 36W and 44W, from 11N to 13N between 46W and 50W, and from 07N to 10N between 52W and 55W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front stretches across the northern Gulf from near Apalachee Bay Florida through a 1014 mb low pressure area near 29N84W to the mid-Texas coast. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from the low to 27N89W. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are also prevalent within 90 to 180 nm southeast to south of the front, as well as over portions of the eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas up to 6 ft are near this activity. Divergent winds west of an upper- level low just north of the Yucatan Peninsula at 23N91W are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SW Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche, and the west-central Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends west-southwest from near Marco Island Florida across the central Gulf to central Mexico. This ridge is promoting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken Fri while lifting northward, and dissipate Fri night just north of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the northern half of the basin through Fri. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Tue night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low SW of Jamaica at 16N79W is inducing scattered showers and a thunderstorms from 13N to 19N between 76W and 83W. Convergent trade winds and daytime surface heating are producing similar conditions over portions of Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional convection across the Caribbean Basin. A tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressure over northern Colombia continues to sustain moderate to fresh trades, locally strong, and seas of 5 to 7 ft across the central portion of the basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft are found just wets of Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere in the basin, mainly moderate trades and seas at 3 to 4 ft are evident. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through Fri night near the coast of NE Colombia and NW Venezuela. Expect fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras from late afternoon through the nighttime hours, each day through Sat night. Fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage during the evening hours this weekend. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from offshore of the Carolinas to near the Georgia/Florida border. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted across the Bahamas northward and west of 75W to across the Florida Peninsula. An upper-level low over the N central Atlantic at 32N52W is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 29N between 48W and 54W. A surface trough is analyzed from 26N42W to 16N46W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 to 120 nm on either side of the trough. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge stretches from 1031 mb high pressure well north of the area near 38N56W to South Florida. Mainly moderate trades dominate the open tropical Atlantic waters north of the convergence zone, with gentle to moderate southerly flow south of the convergence zone, locally fresh between 20W and 35W. An exception is fresh to locally strong N-NE winds offshore of Africa from 15N to 29N east of 20W due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the waters as well. For the forecast W of 65W, the stationary front will lift north of the area by Fri morning. Fresh winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, at night through the weekend. Elsewhere, a surface ridge associated with the Bermuda-Azores high will persist for the next several days. $$ Lewitsky