000 AXNT20 KNHC 011805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Aug 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tight gradient between the Atlantic High and lower pressure across N Africa has been producing gale winds near the Canary Islands and Agadir, and W of the coast of W Sahara and Morocco. A Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France for the nearby marine areas remains in effect through at least 02/0300 UTC. Expect N to NE winds of Force 8 on the Beaufort Scale with rough seas. Please see the High Seas Warning issued by Meteo-France at gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A newly analyzed Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 19N southward and moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 14N between 18W and 22W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W from 21N southward and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 04N to 06N between 31W and 38W. A third Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 16N southward and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 43W and 46W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W from W Jamaica southward across E Panama to the Pacific Ocean, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is present in the Caribbean and over Panama. A tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche near 92W, southward across SE Mexico to the Pacific Ocean and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the bay. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 10N37W to 07N46W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N36W to 07N51W, just N of the French Guiana-Brazil border. Scattered moderate convection is present S of the monsoon trough 05N to 10N between 22W and 30W, and also near the ITCZ from 06N to 08N between 46W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough reaches west-southwestward from Georgia across the Florida Panhandle to near New Orleans. Convergent surface winds near and W of this feature are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms near the Texas-Louisiana border and adjacent waters, and also NW coast of Florida. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional convection. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high over the W central Gulf near 26N92W and associated surface ridge dominate the Gulf with light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, the high and related ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing gentle to moderate winds. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Thu night. A cold front is forecast to reach the northern Gulf of Mexico late Mon into Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over the central basin from 14N to 15N between 70W and 73W. Otherwise, tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic High and lower pressure across Colombia is creating fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft over the S central Caribbean with seas 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found over the N central basin. Mainly moderate trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores high combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Mon morning. Fresh to locally strong winds can be expected across this region through the rest of the week. A tropical wave moving across the central basin will support scattered showers across the NW Caribbean through tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning near the Canary Islands. For information on convection across the Atlantic Basin, refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections. A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1033 mb Azores high across Bermuda to Florida. This feature support mostly light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft N of 20N between 39W and the Bahamas, and also from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present N of 20N between 23W and 39W. Strong to gale winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft are seen N of 23N between the NW African coast and 23W. Gentle to moderate S to WSW winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast W of 65W, the Bermuda-Azores high will dominate the forecast waters over the next several days. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through Thu. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail off the NE Florida coast through Tue. $$ Chan