000 AXNT20 KNHC 010440 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Aug 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0435 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: A Gale Warning for the Meteo-France marine areas of Agadir and Canary Islands is in effect through at least 02/0000 UTC. N to NE winds of Force 8 on the Beaufort Scale and 8-12 ft seas are expected. Please see the High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W, south of 21N, and it is moving W near 15 kt. The wave is embedded in dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer, inhibiting the development of showers and thunderstorms. Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W, south of 16N, and it is moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is noted with the wave at this time. A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W, south of 20N, from eastern Cuba to northern Colombia, and it is moving W at 15-20 kt. No convection is noted with the wave at this time. A tropical wave has exited the Caribbean Sea, its axis is along 90W, south of 20N, from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Eastern Pacific, and it is moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along the eastern Bay of Campeche. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 07N41W. There are no segments of the ITCZ analyzed in the tropical Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 250 nm south of the monsoon trough from 22W to 40W and east of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak 1019 mb high pressure system dominates the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough was analyzed over the W Bay of Campeche, but it has moved inland as of 0300 UTC. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over the E Bay of Campeche, likely being enhanced by the passing tropical wave. These storms are likely to weaken quickly as they propagate westward across the Bay of Campeche. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh N to NE breezes are found in the E Bay of Campeche, while the weak pressure gradient only supports gentle to moderate breezes in the rest of the Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Bay of Campeche and 1-2 ft elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, surface ridging and gentle to locally moderate return flow will prevail across the basin through the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across the northern Gulf of Mexico Mon into Tue as a cold front pushes south toward the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the 1033 mb high pressure system near the Azores and lower pressures over northern South America is supporting near gale trades within 60 nm of the coast of northern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela as shown by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Fresh to locally strong trades are found in the rest of the central Caribbean and in the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas in the central Caribbean are 6-10 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trades are also found in the Bay of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection associated with the East Pacific Monsoon Trough is noted in the SW Caribbean near the coast of Costa Rica and Panama. Fairly tranquil weather conditions with gentle to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the Azores high extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean through Mon morning. Fresh to locally strong winds can be expected across this region through the rest of the week. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras in the evenings on Sun through midweek. A tropical wave moving across the central basin will support scattered showers across Hispaniola and Jamaica tonight and Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the special features section for information on the East Atlantic Gale Warning. A broad 1033 mb high pressure system near the Azores dominates the tropical Atlantic. A trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 24N49W to 16N47W with no significant convection noted at this time. The weather conditions in the rest of the basin are tranquil. Recent scatterometer satellite data depicts fresh trades north of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails in the rest of the tropical Atlantic. Seas are 3-5 ft west of 60W and 5-7 ft in the rest of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 65W, the Azores high will continue to extend a ridge across the region through midweek. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola in the evenings through Wed. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds are expected to develop N of 28N off the NE Florida coast on Sun and continue through Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW offshore waters through early next week. $$ DELGADO