000 AXNT20 KNHC 311728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jul 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: A Gale Warning for the Meteo-France marine areas of Agadir and Canarias is in effect through at least 01/1200 UTC. N to NE winds of Force 8 on the Beaufort Scale and 8-12 ft seas are expected. Please see the High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 28W from 20N southward. Scattered showers are noted from 05N to 10N between 24W and 34W. An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 39W from 16N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 05N to 10N between 34W and 40W. A Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 70W from 20N southward into W Venezuela, moving W at 15-20 kt. No convection is noted with the wave at this time. Another Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 87W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the coast of Honduras north to 18N between 83W and the coast of Belize. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 12N25W to 07N39W. At this time, there are no segments of the ITCZ analyzed in the tropical Atlantic. In addition to the showers noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough from 12N to 15N east of 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from 21N94W inland over Veracruz and Chiapas, Mexico to 17N93W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the W Bay of Campeche from 18N to 21N west of the trough axis. An area of scattered moderate convection is noted in the north central Gulf, from 28N to the US coast between 86W and 90W. A 1019 mb high pressure is analyzed in the central Gulf near 25N91W. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow prevails over the Gulf, except in the eastern Bay of Campeche where E winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 1-3 ft throughout the basin. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the Gulf region during the weekend and early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail through early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse off the Yucatan during late evening through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the subtropical high and East Pacific Monsoon Trough is supporting fresh to locally strong trades in the west-central Caribbean, with seas of 6-10 ft. Scattered moderate convection associated with the East Pacific Monsoon Trough is noted in the SW Caribbean from 10N to 12N west of 81W. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate trades prevail with 4-7 ft seas in the E Caribbean and 3-6 ft seas in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the Azores high extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the central and portions of the SW basin through Mon when the ridge will start to weaken. Moderate to locally fresh winds will dominate elsewhere through the forecast period. Otherwise, a tropical wave crossing Central America will continue to support scattered showers and tstms in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the special features section for information on the East Atlantic Gale Warning. An expansive 1032 mb high pressure system near the Azores dominates the tropical Atlantic. A trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 24N48W to 18N47W with no significant convection noted at this time. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong NE winds from 25N to 31N east of 18W, surrounding the aforementioned gale warned area. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails. Seas are 3-5 ft in tropical Atlantic west of 70W, and 5-7 ft in the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 65W, the Azores high will continue to extend a ridge across the region and support moderate to fresh E winds S of 24N and S to SW winds of the same magnitude N of 28N through the forecast period. Otherwise, scattered showers are expected over the NW offshore waters through early next week.. $$ Mahoney