000 AXNT20 KNHC 311039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jul 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has a Gale Warning for the marine areas of Agadir and Canaries for N to NE gale winds in effect from 1200 UTC Jul 31 to at least 1200 UTC Aug 1 at least. Expect rough seas with temporarily very rough seas. Some sand haze is also possible. See the Metarea II forecast from Meteo- France at gmdss.org/II.html . ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 37W from 16N southward, moving W around 10 kt. The wave is surrounded by dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer, inhibiting the development of showers and thunderstorms. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 64W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 61W and 67W. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis long 85W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 83W and 88W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 12N27W to 07N39W. At this time, there are no segments of the ITCZ analyzed in the tropical Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 15N E of 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic extends westward across the Gulf of Mexico. A trough extends across the eastern Bay of Campeche from 21N91W to 19N92W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Bay of Campeche, S of 24N between 91W and 96W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the northern Gulf, N of 28N between 85W and 90W. Light to gentle breezes prevail across the Gulf with moderate easterly winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas 2 to 4 ft are noted in the eastern Bay of Campeche and 1-3 ft in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge ridge will dominate the Gulf region during the weekend and early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail through early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse off the Yucatan during late evening through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea. A moderate pressure gradient from a surface ridge north of the Caribbean to lower pressure over northern South America is supporting fresh to strong E trades over the central Caribbean. Scatterometer satellite pass from overnight showed moderate to fresh E trades in the NE Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate breezes are noted. Seas are 8 to 10 ft over the central Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, dry air prevails across the basin, resulting in fairly tranquil weather conditions. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean will continue through early Mon. Expect trades to become fresh to locally strong Mon through Wed. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras on Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive 1031 mb high pressure system near the Azores dominates the tropical Atlantic and is providing fairly tranquil weather conditions. Isolated thunderstorms are noted off the Florida coast, from 24N to 30N and W of 78W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail across the SW N Atlantic with seas 2 to 3 ft. A trough extends across the central Atlantic from 24N48W to 18N45W with no significant convection associated with it. The overnight scatterometer satellite data depicted fresh trades north of Puerto Rico. The ridge is supporting moderate or weaker winds with seas 3 to 6 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging along 26N will change little into early next week. Expect fresh to locally strong east winds to pulse during the late afternoons off the northern coast of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, this weekend. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are expected off the NE Florida coast Sun night through Wed. $$ AReinhart