000 AXNT20 KNHC 310523 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jul 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0505 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has a Gale Warning for the marine areas of Agadir and Canaries for N to NE gale winds in effect from 1200 UTC Jul 31 to 0000 UTC Aug 1 at least. See the Metarea II forecast from Meteo-France at gmdss.org/II.html . ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W, south of 14N, and moving W around 10 kt. The wave is surrounded by dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer, inhibiting the development of showers and thunderstorms. A tropical wave is entering the Caribbean Sea, positioned near the Lesser Antilles, with its axis along 61W, south of 19N. This wave is moving W around 15 kt. No convection is associated with the wave at this time. Another Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 83W, extending from 20N southward into the eastern Pacific. It is moving W at around 5-10 kts. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 100 nm east of the wave axis from 13N to 17W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the border of Senegal and The Gambia near 17N17W to 07N38W. At this time, there are no segments of the ITCZ analyzed in the tropical Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 23W and 36W. Another area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 16N east of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic extends westward across the Gulf of Mexico. A weakening outflow boundary is racing westward across the Bay of Campeche as an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms quickly diminish behind it. The rest of the Gulf enjoys tranquil weather conditions. Surface observations and a recent scatterometer satellite pass show moderate to fresh N to NE breezes in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere in the Gulf, light to gentle breezes prevail. Seas 1-3 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche and 1-2 ft in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf region during the weekend and early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail through early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse off the Yucatan during late evening through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea. A moderate pressure gradient from a surface ridge north of the Caribbean to lower pressure over northern South America is supporting fresh to strong E trades over the central Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass shows moderate to fresh E trades in the NE Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate breezes are noted. Seas are 6-8 ft over the central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Dry air prevails across the basin, resulting in fairly tranquil weather conditions. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean will continue through early Mon. Expect trades to become fresh to locally strong Mon through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive 1032 mb high pressure system positioned near the Azores dominates the Tropical Atlantic and provides for fairly tranquil weather conditions. A surface trough extends from 19N45W to 25N47W, but it is not producing significant convection. Recent scatterometer satellite data show fresh trades north of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere in the basin, the ridge is supporting moderate or weaker winds. Seas are 4-6 ft south of 20N and 3-5 ft north of 20N. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging along 26N will change little into early next week. Expect fresh to locally strong east winds to pulse during the late afternoons and at night just off the northern coast of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through early next week. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are expected off the NE Florida waters Sun night through Tue. $$ DELGADO