437 AXNT20 KNHC 301739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jul 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W from 14N southward, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are are associated with this wave from 5N to 8N between 28W to 38W. A second Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from 19N60W to 4N56W and across inland Suriname. This wave is moving westward around 15-20 kt. No convection is associated with the wave at this time. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 81W from 19N southward into the eastern Pacific. It is moving westward at around 5 kts. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 4N to 12N between 77W-86W, including the coastal waters of Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 06N41W. At this time, there are no segments of the ITCZ analyzed in the tropical Atlantic. In addition to the convection described in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 9N to 14N between 14W to 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed from the Florida Panhandle and extending over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is associated with this trough from 27N to 30N between 85W to 90W. Moderate W winds were detected near this trough by the latest scatterometer pass. Elsewhere, weak surface ridging extends across the basin. Moderate E winds are occurring over the southwest Gulf of Mexico, while light to gentle anticyclonic flow and tranquil conditions prevail elsewhere. Seas are 2-4 ft across the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface trough will drift west and gradually dissipate through this afternoon. Atlantic high pressure extends westward across the basin. The ridge will dominate the Gulf region during the upcoming weekend and early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical wave in the western Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean were observed by an ASCAT pass this morning. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the eastern and western Caribbean. Seas are 6-9 ft in the central Caribbean, 3-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the western Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean will continue through early Mon, then diminish to fresh speeds through Tue night as Atlantic high pressure weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure ridging dominates the Tropical Atlantic. In the central Atlantic, a trough extends from 21N42W to 27N45W, with no significant convection noted at this time. The ridge is sustaining light to gentle trades north of 22N and moderate to locally fresh trades south of 22N from 45W to 76W. An ASCAT pass this morning also observed fresh to locally strong NE winds near the Canary Islands. In the western Atlantic, north of 22N and west of 65W, seas are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere in open waters, seas range from 4-7 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging along 26N will change little into early next week. Expect fresh to locally strong east winds to pulse during the late afternoons and at night just off the northern coast of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through early next week. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are expected across the far northwest waters Sun night through Mon night. $$ Nepaul/Mahoney