000 AXNT20 KNHC 272358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jul 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlc extdending from 05N to 18N with axis near 19W, movin W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 12N between 13W and 27W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc extending from 04N to 18N with axis near 34W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 28W and 38W. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean S of 15N with axis near 68W, moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is over the basin. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 81W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 15N to 21N between 76W and 84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 09N27W to 06N37W. The ITCZ begins near 06N37W and continues to 07N55W. For information about convection, see the tropical waves section above. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough remains over the central Gulf generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms while middle to upper level divergence support similar shower activity over the NE basin. A weak surface ridge cover the remainder gulf supporting light to gentle variable winds, except along the Yucatan adjacent waters where the passage of a tropical wave is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds. The trough will drift toward the NW Gulf on Wed. In its wake, the Atlantic high pressure will begin to build westward into the Gulf waters Wed and Thu, with a ridge persisting along 27N into Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Three tropical waves are moving across the basin with the most active being the one with axis along 80W, which is generating heavy showers and tstms over the NW basin, including Jamaica and adjacent waters. Similar shower acivity is observed along Cuba being supported by divergent flow aloft. In the SW basin, the eastern extension of the monsoon trough generates heavy showers along NW Colombia adjacent waters and isolated showers in Central America offshore waters. Otherwise, with a weak pressure gradient across the region, mainly moderate trade winds prevail with locally fresh winds in the south-central basin and vicinity of the tropical waves. Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected across the basin through Thu. The exception will be moderate to locally fresh winds near the coast of Colombia, in the Gulf of Venezuela and Gulf of Honduras. Winds will increase across the E and central Caribbean Thu night into Fri as the Atlantic ridge builds westward in the wake of a trough moving westward across the Atlc waters north of the Greater Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda-Azores high dominates the forecast region and supports mainly light to gentle variable winds over the subtropical SW and central regions of the basin. Over the subtropical E Atlc, latest scatterometer data show fresh NE winds off the coast of W Africa, including the Canary Islands where seas are 5-6 ft. A col of low pressure in the middle levels is supporting an area of showers N of 27N between 59W and 71W. Otherwise, expect fresh to locally strong easterly winds at night just off N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage most of the forecast period. $$ Ramos