000 AXNT20 KNHC 261754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jul 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1705 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 20N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. A Caribbean tropical wave along 63W, south of 16N, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, from western Haiti to northern Colombia, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 270 nm of the wave axis from 13N to 16N and between 72W and 79W. The wave is also enhancing the development of showers and thunderstorms over eastern Colombia and western Venezuela. A Caribbean tropical wave is exiting the Caribbean Sea along 84W, from south of western Cuba to Costa Rica, moving W at 10 kt. Convection associated with this wave is confined to near the monsoon trough, S of 12N and is described below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of The Gambia near 13N17W to 09N41W. The ITCZ continues from 09N42W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 200 nm of either side the monsoon trough and ITCZ. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from off the coast of Panama near 11N79W to near the Costa Rica/Panama border near 09N83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the southeast Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica coasts. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from near Sarasota, Florida to the southeast Gulf near 24N87W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted within 100 nm on either side of the trough. Light to gentle winds and 1-2 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist south of the trough through tonight as it drifts westward. Atlantic high pressure will begin to build westward into the Gulf basin Wed and Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Surface observations and recent scatterometer satellite data showed gentle to moderate trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds were noted in the western Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas were 2-4 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean, with 1-2 ft elsewhere. The trade wind flow is lighter than usual, related in part to a relatively weaker subtropical ridge north of the area. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected through Wed. The exception will be moderate to locally fresh winds near the coast of Colombia. Winds will increase across the E and central Caribbean Wed night into Fri as the Atlantic ridge builds westward in the wake of a trough moving westward across the Atlc waters north of the Greater Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1011 mb low pressure is located near 30N81W, 35 nm E of Jacksonville, Florida. Most of the convection is located to the west of the center, affecting the coast of northeast Florida and inland southwest Georgia. Development of this system has become less likely before it moves inland later today or tonight. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted between Bermuda and Hispaniola, from 20N to 31N and betwen 65W and 71W. This activity is due to upper level divergence and tropical moisture flowing northward. Further east, scatterometer data captured the surface trough along 51W, from 16N to 29N. The surface trough is not producing convection as it is surrounded by dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer. An expansive 1031 mb high pressure near the Azores is causing gentle to locally moderate winds and seas 4 to 6 ft across the central and western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds are found surrounding the Canary Islands and off the coast of Morocco, resulting in seas 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, an elongated area of showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread north and northwestward across the waters E of 75W through tonight. A broad inverted trough will enter the SE waters Tue night and move westward and across the Bahamas through Thu night. $$ DELGADO/MORA